Although it may not feel like it, we are less than one week away from the 2020 MLB first-year player draft. The annual event is set to begin on Wednesday, June 10th at 6:00 PM CST and continue on Thursday, June 11th at 4:00 PM CST. In a normal year, the draft would consist of 40 rounds, as well as five additional rounds for compensation and competitive balance lottery picks. But, this isn’t a normal year. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the 2020 draft has drastically shrunk and will only consist of 160 selections over just five rounds.
For the White Sox, they will look to make the most of this occasion because thanks to their 72-89 record in 2019, they have earned themselves the number 11 pick. Now with the limited rounds to go with that, the pressure is on. A big question that lingers for their first round selection is which direction they’ll go in. Ever since they took high school outfielder Courtney Hawkins in 2012, the organization has gone the college route with names we’re all familiar with now such as Tim Anderson, Carlos Rodon, Nick Madrigal, and last year, Andrew Vaughn. We’ll see if this trend continues, though this is the first draft under new amatuer scouting director Mike Shirley and some intriguing high schoolers could sway the team to take the risk when the clock starts ticking.
With that being said, here are 12 names to keep your eye on in the first-round followed by our crew’s predictions. Note, each prospect is listed in the order by which they are ranked by MLB Pipeline, not by their likelihood of being picked.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Age: 21 | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 204 lb. | B/T: L/R
Previously Drafted: 2017, 14th round (Oakland Athletics)
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Garrett Mitchell has found himself landing on draft boards since his high school days at Orange Lutheran. His college commitment, Type 1 diabetes, and concerns about his ability to tap into his tools ultimately led to him falling to the 14th round in 2017. He elected to attend UCLA and since his arrival, Mitchell has seen abundant playing time and plenty of improvements. During his sophomore campaign in 2019, he slashed .349/.418/.566 with 14 doubles, 12 triples, six home runs, 41 RBI, 18 stolen bases and a 41 to 27 strikeout to walk ratio. This earned him a spot on the Pac-12 All-Conference Team among many other honors.
Mitchell continued that trend by hitting .355/.425/.484 with six doubles, one triple, nine RBI, and three stolen bases through the first 15 games of the 2020 season. His overall swing improvements and power potential makes him a very appealing option. He’s also a plus runner for his size with his 70-grade speed, which leads some to believe he’ll be a long-term centerfielder and at least an above average defender to go along with his stolen-base threat.
For the White Sox, there’s a chance Mitchell will still be available at number 11. Mock drafts don’t really have him locked in anywhere, despite his 6th overall ranking by multiple publications. Given his offensive and defensive abilities, he would no doubt be a solid addition to the outfield prospects already in the system. His left-handed hitting ability would also be much welcomed in Chicago’s lineup, where he would likely find himself playing in a corner outfield role with Luis Robert locking down centerfield long-term.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 6
- Baseball America: 6
- FanGraphs: 14
- ESPN: 20
Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
Age: 20 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 210 lb. | B/T: L/L
Previously Drafted: 2017, 32nd (Atlanta Braves)
MLB Pipeline Grades – Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Likely out of range for the Sox, Reid Detmers would be a huge get if he slides far enough. The local Illinois product has become “the most polished left-hander available” according to MLB Pipeline. During his sophomore season in 2019, he led Louisville to the College World Series with a 13-4 record, 2.78 ERA, 167 strikeouts, and .177 opponent batting average across 113.1 innings pitched.
That same dominance was apparent early through four games, as he already racked up 48 strikeouts while surrendering just three earned. The lefty’s build has even earned him comparisons to former Rays’ first rounder Brendan McKay. Detmers features a fastball that ranges between 90-94 mph, though he hides the ball well to give it more life than what the velocity reads. He’s also got nasty offspeed with what projects to be a plus curveball and a sinking changeup, all of which he manages to control very well.
It’s no secret that the White Sox have a lack of left-handed starting pitching in their farm system. Detmers would help solve part of that issue by easily jumping Bernardo Flores in the rankings to become the top lefty prospect. If the improbable happens and he sneaks past the top 10, expect the Sox to pounce.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 8
- Baseball America: 8
- FanGraphs: 10
- ESPN: 12
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
Age: 21 | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205 lb. | B/T: L/R
Previously Drafted: 2017, 36th (Seattle Mariners)
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Heston Kjerstad is one of the best power bats in the class and a pretty polished hitter. He played his college ball at Arkansas, slashing .345/.425/.587 over 145 games in college’s toughest conference. He has had a bit of a strikeout problem – his career K% was about 20%. He was off to an excellent start in 2020 before the pandemic shut down the country, slashing .448/.513/.791 with six homers in 67 at bats, and his K-rate was much lower at just 11.5%; however, critics will tell you he didn’t face any SEC competition during this time. He has a really smooth swing with a unique hitch; it hasn’t seemed to affect him thus far, though it might be a point of emphasis for whichever team drafts him. According to some scouts, he isn’t the world’s greatest outfielder, but he does have an arm that should play well enough in a corner outfield spot.
Kjerstad joins Garrett Mitchell as a left-handed college outfielder who would immediately bolster the organization’s minor league depth. While his scouting grades might not necessarily reflect it and differ depending on which site you look at, the Kjerstad is actually the better hitter of the two thanks to his above-average power to all fields and quick bat. If selected, he would also find himself as being arguably the top outfield prospect in the system and slot in nicely to right field once he reaches the South Side.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 10
- Baseball America: 13
- FanGraphs: 7
- ESPN: 9
Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 190 lb. | B/T: R/R
Signed: Oregon State
MLB Pipeline Grades – Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Mick Abel is the first of several prep arms you’ll find on our list in this pitcher heavy draft. The Oregon State commit was named Gatorade Player of the Year in 2019 after helping his Jesuit High School team win the state title. He struck out 90 hitters over a span of 57.1 innings, while owning an impressive 1.34 ERA during that season. Abel also spent some time at first base where he hit .294, though he’ll be sticking to the mound in his professional career.
Standing in a 6-5, the righty features a fastball that sits between 93-95 mph and comes with some good movement to it. Abel also throws a decent slider and curveball that each could use some polishing but figures to be a part of his repertoire down the line. Not to mention, he’s also got a “future plus changeup” per MLB Pipeline, with a sinking motion and dip to it at the end.
With regards to the Sox, the last time they used their first round pick for a prep pitcher was with Kris Honel back in 2001. Abel could cause the team to consider breaking their college trend, though there’s a strong chance he is off the board by their selection. If he’s still around, it’s important to note that the club has been adding much younger pitching to the farm in other top rounds of the draft, so he could make for an interesting decision if the Shirley and Co. opt to build for the future.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 11
- Baseball America: 11
- FanGraphs: 9
- ESPN: 14
Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio High School (TX)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215 lb. | B/T: R/R
Signed: Texas
MLB Pipeline Grades – Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Jared Kelley is another name being floated around with the White Sox, and how could he not be? The high school right-hander is considered the top prep pitcher in the draft and has a lot that he brings to the table. Just this past spring, he compiled 34 strikeouts over 12 innings for Refugio High School before COVID-19 cancelled the rest of play. In addition, he was previously named Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year for the course of the 2019-20 season.
Compared to Abel, he’s got him beat in the velocity column with a mid-90s fastball that has reached as high as 98mph on the radar gun. He’s also got a filthy changeup that MLB Pipeline calls “advanced” due to its sinking motion. As for his slider, it’s still very much a work in progress that could develop into a decent third pitch once he throws it more consistently.
Kelley’s low effort delivery mixed with already impressive stuff puts him up for consideration at number 11. He has the potential to become a top starter, and puts the Sox in the same type of situation as with Mick Abel, though there’s a higher chance Kelley is still on board.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 12
- Baseball America: 12
- FanGraphs: 20
Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny High School (PA)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195 lb. | B/T: L/L
Signed: Mississippi State
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Ranked the top prep position player in Pennsylvania, Austin Hendrick is an intriguing outfield prospect full of upside. During his 2019 season, the lefty batted .327 with two home runs, 12 RBI, and 23 walks over the course of 52 at-bats. It would have been interesting to see the strides he’d make in 2020, but games were cancelled throughout the state before they could even begin.
When it comes to Hendrick, there are some question marks that lie in his bat. He has a lot of raw power that should be put on display more as he continues to develop. To go with that, he has super quick hands that contribute to his bat speed. The main concern is the increase in strikeouts he experienced after adjusting with his swing this past summer. Even so, what he’s already shown at the dish has many scouts believing he should reach a ceiling as a big-time run producer. The high schooler also has a decent arm and enough speed to test the waters in center, though a corner outfield spot looks more probable.
With the White Sox main pool of outfield prospects having a pretty underwhelming 2019, the addition of Hendrick would add some depth at the lower levels to start. His left-handed hitting ability, like the two college guys highlighted above, would offer some relief for a right-handed heavy lineup at the major league level. Just don’t expect to see him in Chicago for a few of years, because this type of draft pick is geared towards building for the future and stocking the next core group of prospects.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 13
- Baseball America: 9
- FanGraphs: 13
- ESPN: 13
Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East High School (PA)
Age: 17 | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 225 lb. | B/T: R/R
Signed: Virginia
MLB Pipeline Grades – Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Nick Bitsko is someone who was set to highlight next year’s draft, but he’s graduating a year early and now listed in the top 20 of all major rankings. While still one of this year’s top arms, teams and scouts just haven’t seen enough of the newly eligible pitcher to this point. During his career with Central Bucks East, he struck out 68, walked just 12, and kept his ERA at 1.27 over 33.0 innings.
The Virginia commit has a lot to like and build off of. He has a powerful fastball that sits in the lower to mid-90s that reached as high as 96-97 mph over the summer. His above average curveball is a wipe out pitch that gets a lot of swings and misses. He also uses a solid changeup as his third pitch, just not as much as his breaking ball.
A lot of rankings and mock drafts have Bitsko sitting about five to ten slots below the White Sox 11th pick. Given the other high school and college options that should still be available when the clock starts running, it doesn’t seem likely that the prep star will be the most logical fit. However, he’s still one of the top high school arms and will likely be in the mix given what he brings to the table.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 14
- Baseball America: 19
- FanGraphs: 16
- ESPN: 15
Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel High School (IL)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 lb. | B/T: R/R
Signed: Oklahoma
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55
We all know Ed Howard as the starting shortstop on the Jackie Robinson West squad that made it to the finals of the 2014 Little League World Series. Now that he’s aged a bit, he’s turned himself into the top shortstop prospect in the draft.
Howard is known more for his plus defense than his bat at this point in his career. He’s very athletic with quick hands and a strong arm that will allow him to stay locked in at shortstop long term. At the dish, he’s been good but was a bit up and down this past summer, which is the latest scouts have to go by. The righty does make a lot of hard contact and could blossom into an average or better power hitter, according to MLB Pipeline. He’s undoubtedly got a very high floor and ceiling which makes him valuable at a premium position.
Given his local background and participation in the White Sox Ace program, the organization is very familiar with Howard. While it would make for a nice story, it seems unlikely that he will be taken by the franchise depending on the other available players who may better fit current needs of the organization.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 15
- Baseball America: 20
- FanGraphs: 11
Robert Hassell, OF, Independence High School (TN)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 lb. | B/T: L/L
Signed: Vanderbilt
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Robert Hassell is no question one of the most intriguing prep players in this draft. The Vanderbilt commit has been called the best pure hitter among all 2020 prep players, with a left-handed stroke that bears some similarity to Bryce Harper. There’s been some doubts among some scouts about how much power he will ultimately tap into, but even the most skeptical of scouts would still project Hassell to be a 15-homer player.
The quality of his tools beyond his bat remain in question among scouts as well. His biggest defenders will tell you he will stick in CF, while his detractors will tell you his arm is only above-average and will eventually be relegated to a corner OF spot. Hassell profiles much like the other prep players in any draft: questions about the amount of upside, but no real doubt in the fact that upside does exist. Whichever team takes Hassell will have become pretty convinced that his tools are legitimate and that there’s still lots of projection left.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 16
- Baseball America: 16
- FanGraphs: 15
- ESPN: 6
Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
Age: 21 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 192 lb. | B/T: S/R
Previously Drafted: 2017, 37th (Minnesota Twins)
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50
If there is one name who has been consistently connected to the White Sox, it’s this guy. The majority of mock drafts out there have been trending towards the junior catcher out of North Carolina State. Bailey turned down the Twins as a 37th-rounder in 2017. Instead, he went to NC State and was named Atlantic Coast Conference Freshman of the Year and is now likely to become the first catcher selected in this year’s draft.
Bailey is a switch-hitter with solid raw power from both sides of the plate. In 17 games this spring, he slashed .296/.685/.466 with six homers, three doubles, and 20 RBI. Scouts like his power more than they like his hit tool, but he still puts up quality at-bats. Despite his struggles in wood bat leagues with Team USA last summer, scouts believe he will continue to produce at the next level. Defensively, Bailey is inconsistent as a receiver, but has the arm strength to throw out his fair share of baserunners. He also grades highly as a game manager, as he called his own game behind the plate at NC State, which is an incredibly rare duty for a catcher at the college level.
Bailey would no doubt be a pretty safe pick for the White Sox should they take him 11th overall.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 17
- Baseball America: 14
- FanGraphs: 12
- ESPN: 11
Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Age: 20 | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 218 lb. | B/T: L/L
Previously Drafted: 2017, 34th (Milwaukee Brewers)
MLB Pipeline Grades – Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Garrett Crochet is one of the more interesting names in this draft, as many evaluators are just really not sure where he will wind up on most teams’ draft boards. Back in 2017, Crochet was rates at Mississippi’s best prep pitching prospect. After putting up rather pedestrian numbers in his first two years with Tennessee, Crochet’s fall practices vaulted him into first round consideration. His fastball velocity jumped from 91-95 mph in the spring last year to 96-100 mph this past fall, and his heater already played well due to its high spin rate. His 82-85 mph slider is a major league-ready pitch, and he pairs these two excellent pitches with a well above-average changeup.
The risk with Crochet is two-fold. First, he was limited to just 3.1 innings before the coronavirus shutdown due to shoulder soreness, so scouts have not gotten to see a lot of him since fall practices. Additionally, Crochet has struggled with command at times, causing some evaluators to think he could be ticketed for the bullpen – similar to the path of Andrew Miller. However, he has earned high praises from Keith Law, who believes he could probably pitch in relief in the majors this year.
As we’ve gotten closer to draft day, Crochet has started to fall down some draft boards as more are starting to feel the risk of little recent scouting, command issues, and previous injury. Combine all of those and it’s likely too much to warrant a top-15 pick.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 18
- Baseball America: 15
- FanGraphs: 23
- ESPN: 16
Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock High School (CA)
Age: 18 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200 lb. | B/T: L/R
Signed: UCLA
MLB Pipeline Grades – Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 40 | Overall: 50
If there’s any prep prospect who’s turned heads recently, even despite not being able to play, it’s Tyler Soderstrom. The left-handed prep player is a bat-first catcher. Scouts have praised his polished approach and loud contact at the plate. His hit tool is stronger than his raw power, but scouts believe the power will develop. Recently, Soderstrom posted this video to Twitter to show his development over the winter.
The biggest knock on Soderstrom is his defense. He isn’t particularly strong behind the plate, and most evaluators agree that it is likely he does not stick behind the plate. He’s incredibly raw in terms of blocking and game management. However, due to his athleticism, most believe he could play either corner infield spot or right field.
Whichever team drafts Soderstrom will be convinced that the UCLA-commit will develop into an above-average bat in the major league level, overshadowing any doubts about his defensive abilities. The risk here is clear, however: if the bat doesn’t translate to the professional level, scouts aren’t sure the defense will make up for it.
Draft Rankings:
- MLB Pipeline: 19
- Baseball America: 18
- FanGraphs: 21
- ESPN: 10
Sox On 35th Predictions
Now, let’s get to the fun part of this article. A few members of the Sox On 35th crew offered their insight and gave their predictions for who we’ll see join the organization on June 10th. For what it’s worth, three out of our four members chose Nick Madrigal correctly in 2018, and four out of five selected Andrew Vaughn last year. This year, we’ve got a little more variety in our picks so we’ll see who can keep their success rate up.
Joe Binder | Founder & Owner
Prediction: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
An organizational need for the White Sox is pitching and this draft is full of young arms. Prospects like Jared Kelley and Mick Abel highlight the prep talent available, though I am not a fan of going this route for a pitcher in the first-round. The risk just isn’t worth it when there’s a chance to grab a college arm like Garrett Crochet or Reid Detmers. Now, I’m not going to pretend I don’t know this prediction is a little bold. Detmers is ranked 8th by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, with plenty of mock drafts having him selected in that general area. Am I convinced he’ll fall to number 11? No, because he has all the signs of being a top-10 draft pick. That being said, I like what Detmers brings too much and really can’t decide on a clear second option. Let’s bank on teams underslotting and the Louisville product’s slide to the Sox.
Others Considered: Heston Kjerstad, Garrett Crochet, Austin Hendrick, Garrett Mitchell
Jordan Lazowski | Editor-in-Chief
Prediction: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
On my own principle, I am very opposed to drafting high school starting pitcher in the first round, given their failure/bust rate of near 50%. The risk/reward trade off is simply not there for me, especially with a near top ten pick. I’m less opposed to drafting high school position players, and almost picked one here. However, the reality is that the White Sox need to take on the smallest amount of risk possible in order to try and complement their core with as many players who can contribute as soon as possible – an additional two to three years of development before reinforcements arrive is not time the Sox have right now. Talk to me after 2021/2022 about my thoughts on drafting high school talent.
If I was in the draft room, I’d be telling Mike Shirley to decide between Heston Kjerstad and Garrett Crochet. Ultimately, I settled on Kjerstad. He has been all over the top 15, and Pittsburgh apparently loves him at number seven. He’s gone anywhere from No. 7-15 in most mock drafts I’ve seen.
Kjerstad gives the White Sox a future left-handed bat that could play well in a corner outfield position or at first base if necessary. Some might tell you the White Sox should focus on positions outside of the outfield due to their depth. My response is two-fold:
- Best Player Available in the first round, always. Pitching is the strength of this draft, so the Sox can grab good talent in the second and third rounds as well.
- I don’t believe the White Sox depth at outfield is as deep as a lot of people will tell you it is.
I’d rip up all these plans, however, if Reid Detmers somehow falls to number 11. I don’t anticipate this happening, so he’s not on here. If he is, he should absolutely be the player the Sox grab.
Others Considered: Garrett Crochet, Austin Hendrick, Robert Hassell, Garrett Mitchell, Tyler Soderstrom
Nik Gaur | Managing Editor
Prediction: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (TX)
For the first time in years, I am really not sure what the White Sox are planning on doing with their first round pick. For months, I was convinced they would select a high school player: either Illinois shortstop Ed Howard or Texas right-handed starter Jared Kelley. However, recent mock drafts have been almost unanimous in connecting the White Sox to North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey, among other college hitters.
There are almost a dozen players the White Sox could feasibly draft who I would be content with, but I will go with my gut and predict the Texas high school phenom Jared Kelley. Pitching should be the primary focus for the White Sox in this draft, both because it is a strength of the draft class and because pitching is a need for this system. Kelley, like any high school pitcher, carries risk, but he truly has an ace ceiling with his easy delivery, consistent fastball, and advanced control. For the White Sox, it’s a risk worth taking.
Tim Moran | Analyst
Prediction: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
While most mock drafts have catcher Patrick Bailey going to the White Sox, I’m going to go a different route. Given the lack of impact outfielders in the farm system, especially with the struggles of Blake Rutherford and Luis Alexander Basabe, and the depth at the catcher position, I’ll say Chicago selects UCLA outfileder Garrett Mitchell with the 11th pick. Everybody knows the Sox love proven college hitters, and selecting a college bat makes even more sense with the win-now shift in the club’s approach. I would project Arkansas’ OF Heston Kjerstad, but I think he will be gone by the time Rick Hahn and company are on the clock. Mitchell slashed .349/.418/.566 in 2019 and nearly won a Gold Glove award, making him a well-rounded option that could easily transfer to right field assuming Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez aren’t going anywhere.
Noah Phalen | Contributor
Prediction: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (TX)
Kelley was one of the names that immediately stuck out to me several months ago as a potential fit for the Sox. Most of the Sox top pitching prospects have graduated or dealt with injuries, and the system could certainly use an influx of pitching. Kelley combines a mid-upper 90s fastball with a nasty change-up and a breaking ball that should at least be average. He’s only 18, but very polished for his age and could potentially rise quickly through the system. He’d join the “new wave” of young pitchers in the system, and he’d likely be projected as the best of the group. The high schooler would be a great fit for the Sox, and there’s a very good chance he’s still on the board come pick number 11.
How To Watch
The 2020 Draft will be televised on MLB Network, as well as a combination of ESPN and ESPN2. The first round will begin on Wednesday at 6:00 PM CST and will be followed by rounds two through five on Thursday, starting at 4:00 PM CST.
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John Chisholm: University of Minnesota RHP Max Meyer is a consensus top-10 talent in this year’s draft class. He has also been a projected pick at #5 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the latest mock drafts by both MLB and ESPN which might explain the ‘neglect’ by the panelists here. You’d best believe the White Sox would jump at the chance to select Meyer should he fall to them at #11. The odds of that happening are extremely remote which is probably why Joe Binder opted for University of Louisville LHP Reid Detmers for the organization at #11. I believe the White Sox would prioritize Meyer and then Detmers but both will likely be gone by the time they pick which is why I rolled with UCLA OF Garrett Mitchell, Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad or NC State C Patrick Bailey as their first selection this Wednesday.
That is correct. I don’t see Meyer plummeting that far in the rankings at all, hence the Detmers pick (which I already think is somewhat of a stretch). Meyer would no doubt be a must-grab at 11, but that would take some serious underslotting.
Excellent analysis, gentlemen. Only problem is that all of you are wrong. The White Sox historical trends are pretty obvious, even with a new signal caller (and let’s be real, do you think the Sox are going to let a first year draft supervisors go rogue and select whomever he wants?). The Sox prefer proven, college talent, regardless of position. With pitching, they tend to favor size and power arms from proven programs. With hitters, the recent trend (Collins, Madrigal, and Vaughn) are all high OPB hitters. Positionally, the Sox are pretty set across the diamond, as long as one of their 15 outfield prospects moored in AA can figure out how to take RF from Mazara in a few years. That leads us to the old adage in baseball, “you can NEVER have enough pitching!” What essentially closed the window much faster than anticipated for a young and championship caliber Cubs team? Simple-lack of homegrown (cheap) starting pitching. The Cubs hamstrung themselves with costly contracts to veterans such as Chatwood and Darvish (contract not looking too bad now) and also drained their prospect talent pool for trades to acquire the likes of Quintana. If the Sox contention window really is the length of Robert’s contract (2020-2027), then the last thing you can afford is to take a very risky HS starting pitcher. As mentioned, the bust rate on HS pitchers is over 50%. For every Kershaw or Bumgarner, there are a few hundred Kris Honels. And if you do draft a HS pitcher and they don’t bust or blow out an elbow, when is the earliest they could get up to help the MLB club? 2023? 2024?
Enter-Max Meyer…not the sexist pick but you guys didn’t even profile him! He will be there at 11. Teams ahead of the Sox will get enamored with high ceiling, HS talent. Meyer will slip out of the top 10, demand an overslot deal at 11, and the White Sox will gladly pay it. I’ll gladly take a #2 or #3 starter to beef up the starting rotation by 2022. Before you call me crazy, one element missing from your analysis is that this year might see some craziness given the significantly reduced rounds. Teams ahead of the White Sox may want to go underslot to load up in subsequent rounds to spread the wealth and come away with 2-3 legit prospects as opposed to 1.
Excellent analysis, gentlemen. However, you are all wrong. The Sox historical trends are pretty obvious-proven college talent, whether pitcher or hitter. With pitching, they tend to favor power arms from proven programs. With hitters, the recent trend (Collins, Madrigal, and Vaughn) are all high OBP hitters. Positionally, the Sox are pretty set across the diamond, as long as one of their 15 prospects from AA can figure out how not to suck and take RF from Mazara in a few years. What is the old adage in baseball? You can NEVER have enough pitching. What essentially closed the window very quickly on a young and championship-caliber Cubs team-lack of homegrown starting pitching. The Cubs hamstrung themselves with costly contracts to Darvish, Chatwood, etc. while also draining their prospect pool to acquire the likes of Quintana. If the Sox contention window really is from the present to 2027 when Robert can become a FA, then the last thing you can afford is to take a very risky HS starting pitcher. As mentioned, the bust rate on HS pitchers is over 50%. And if you do draft a HS pitcher and they don’t bust or blow out an elbow, when is the earliest they could get up to help the MLB club? 2023? 2024? Enter Max Meyer…not the sexiest pick but you guys didn’t even profile him. He will be there at 11. Teams ahead of Sox will get enamored with HS talent. Meyer will slip a bit and demand an overslot deal at 11 that the Sox will gladly pay. I’ll glad take a number 2 or 3 starter to buff up the rotation by 2022.
Most mock drafts have the White Sox selecting a college player. That has been the m.o. of the organization for the past two decades. Their few deviations resulted in failures with high school OF Courtney Hawkins and 1B Keon Barnum in 2012 along with local RHP Kris Honel back in 2001. The one success in MLB has been LHP Gio Gonzalez from the 2004 draft. Of course, Gonzalez found his success with other teams when the White Sox dealt him twice before he reached the big leagues. He will finally have a chance to pitch at the top level for his original organization if the owners and players can ultimately work out a compromise in an abbreviated 2020 season.
It’s interesting that two of the panelists here have the White Sox selecting prep righty Jared Kelley in the first round next Wednesday. Kelley will likely be available to the White Sox with their #11 first round pick. Conversely, most mock drafts have the White Sox selecting NC State C Patrick Bailey with their first pick. Not one of the panelists went that route in this article.
I believe the White Sox will continue their tradition of opting for a college player with their first pick next week, one that is deep in pitchers. I agree with Joe Binder that Louisville LHP Reid Detmers will be the White Sox top pick at #11 if he should fall that far. Unfortunately, Detmers is unlikely to drop out of the top-10 so my best guess is that the White Sox will roll with either UCLA OF Garrett Mitchell, Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad or Bailey. My personal preference of that last trio is the toolsy Mitchell but I’m thinking the White Sox might go with the safer pick of Bailey to be their heir apparent to Yasmani Grandal behind the dish come 2024.
Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts, Aaron! I also agree with you if Detmers isn’t available. The trio of Kjerstad, Mitchell, and Bailey are all options I like with Kjerstad my current favorite out of the three.