As the 2019 season progresses, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Yoan Moncada is the best player on the White Sox (for now). His numbers are already fantastic, and he’s only getting better. Right now, he’s sporting a .301/.358/.532 line. Factor in some solid defense and his 20-some games missed to injury and he’s ranked 13th in fWAR/game out of all position players.
No other position player on the team comes close to Moncada’s overall offensive value. Tim Anderson is having a wonderful year, but Moncada is a step up.
That said, it’s time Rick Renteria starts treating Moncada like the elite player he is. Recently, Ricky has been batting Yoan in the cleanup spot. It seemed to work well at first, as Moncada blasted a three-run dinger on July 22nd in his first game batting fourth. He then got injured and upon returning the results have been nothing special, with Moncada recording 9 RBIs over 27 total bases. My point? Yoan Moncada is so valuable that his number of plate appearances should be maximized and he should bat first or second.
Take a look around the league, and you’ll see that teams are catching on when it comes to batting their best player in the top third of the order. Mike Trout bats second. Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, and Paul Goldschmidt bat third. The list goes on and on, with the exception of a few lucky teams (Dodgers, Astros, Yankees) who are so talented that a guy with a .900+ OPS bats fifth and it really doesn’t matter. As we all know, the Sox are not one of those teams.
It might seem sensible on the surface to put your crown jewel in a run-producing spot, but it usually doesn’t work out. Instead of hoping for runners to be on for a guy like Moncada, statistics prove it’s better to prioritize their plate appearances. More opportunities = more runs. With Jose Abreu seemingly entrenched in the #3 spot, Moncada can shine as a #1 or #2 hitter.
He did just that in the three-game set against the Angels, where he batted first once and second twice with Renteria not managing. Moncada finished the series 7-10 with 3 runs and 1 RBI, which albeit a tiny sample size is miles better than his decent showings as a cleanup hitter.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is all the rage these days. Last week, he became the second player under the age of 22 to record 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in a season. He’s probably going to achieve the absurd 40/40 mark, too. If only the White Sox had a guy like th—oh wait, they have two!
If Tim Anderson wasn’t sidelined for over a month, then he would be looking at a potential 25/25 season, which would be a commendable accomplishment. I have no issues there.
However, Moncada wouldn’t be close even without his injuries, as he sits at just 9 stolen bases on 12 attempts currently. Can somebody explain to me why a guy with blazing, 70-grade speed is sitting at just 9 steals over 80 singles? I don’t know if Moncada or the team is hesitant, because Anderson appears to have a green light. But someone along the line needs to be way more aggressive. There’s little downside, as a 75% success rate means attempting steals is perfectly worth the risk.
If you put my two ideas together, you’re going to have a lot more first innings with a runner in scoring position (Moncada) and less than two outs for Jose Abreu. That sounds much better than Moncada leading off the second or coming to bat with two outs in the first inning, which are the most common outcomes currently.
As he went through the system, Yoan was billed as the pinnacle five-tool player. He’s shown the ability to be that guy, and now it’s time for the White Sox to ensure they properly utilize his tools.
Featured Photo: Chris Tejeda/@FotoGenocide_
Everything changes with White Sox lineup construction beginning next year. Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal will be added to the batting order with Andrew Vaughn likely joining the lineup in 2021. Additionally, a solid left-handed bat will be a prime target for GM Rick Hahn this offseason, likely the White Sox new right fielder. Lefty hitting Zack Collins also figures to become at least a semi-regular in the batting order as one of James McCann’s backup catchers and the top candidate to DH versus right-handed pitching. With active rosters expanding to 26 in 2020 I expect the White Sox to carry 3 catchers which would allow Collins and perhaps right-handed hitting backstop Yermin Mercedes to split DH duties with one always being a reserve on the bench.
Even with all these new additions to the batting order, Yoan Moncada figures prominently in the top third of the White Sox lineup. By far, his most common role to date has been as the White Sox #1 or #2 hitter. Thus far his numbers have been superior hitting second with a .310/.377/.552 triple slash compared with his .242/.317/.426 metrics leading off. It’s best to keep in mind that those numbers are skewed because Moncada hit mostly #1 in 2018, his first full season with the White Sox when he still had rookie status and was just starting to figure things out as a big league hitter. This season, the White Sox have gotten better than expected production from Leury Garcia in the leadoff role which saw Moncada dropping to the #2 slot more often than not. The improvements that Moncada has made as hitter in 2019 probably have more to do with his own adjustments in his approach to batting than his move to the #2 slot by manager Rick Renteria.
We all expect Moncada to duplicate his 2019 season or improve going forward and not regress back to those 2018 numbers. The addition of more quality hitters to the batting order beginning next season will give the White Sox a nice problem, perhaps even equalling the conundrum the Dodgers face with their .900 OPS #5 hitter at some point down the road.
I also happen to be a White Sox fan who appreciated the way lineup construction was done in the past. I do embrace advanced analytics but also prefer many of the traditional aspects that worked in MLB since 1901. I like the idea of my leadoff hitter being one with a high OBP who can also steal a ton of bases above everything else. The White Sox look to have some viable options for that role beginning next season including Moncada and Madrigal, along with Robert and Tim Anderson if each of them can sustain solid OBP’s which thus far have been generated mostly through high BA’s. Moncada will need to be given the green light more often to take advantage of his elite speed. We already know that Anderson can steal bases with a high efficiency and that both Robert and Madrigal stole 36 and 35 this past season in the minors.
The notion of a patient, high contact, low strike out #2 batter that can hit to all fields also appeals to me. Any hitter with that ability will automatically be a high BA/OBP bat. If he also has good speed and the ability to steal bases all the better. There is something to be said in having two players atop the lineup who can create havoc on the bases which distracts the opponents starting pitcher AND infield defense. It’s also beneficial to have your top two hitters see a lot of pitches to start a game which can benefit the rest of the lineup. The latter point works with Moncada and Madrigal, might with Robert but hasn’t with Anderson often enough. By far, Madrigal offers the White Sox the best option to fill the traditional role of a #2 hitting “grunt”. He checks everyone of those boxes I mentioned. The traditional “grunt” role also worked well for our beloved when they reached their only two World Series in most any of our lifetimes. Hall of Fame second baseman Nellie Fox did it in 1959 behind leadoff hitter Luis Aparicio who is also enshrined in Cooperstown. In 2005, 2B Tadahito Iguchi filled the #2 role nicely behind primary leadoff man Scott Podsednik. All this being said, Moncada could also fill the #2 spot since he checks most of those boxes with the exception of the low SO rate. He also has produced those great triple slash numbers at #2 which brings me to the next batting order slot…
From a traditional standpoint, the #3 batter was usually the team’s top overall hitter, the one who had the best triple slash combination. The HOF is loaded with such players including White Sox 1B Frank Thomas and Cubs OF Billy Williams. It’s a little early to project who might eventually be that guy with the White Sox going forward. Jose Abreu has filled that role admirably in his his first 6 seasons but it’s not a done deal that he will return in 2020. Even if he is extended the White Sox might have better candidates to hit third going forward including Moncada who is the White Sox best overall hitter based on his excellent BA/OBP/SLG this year. Other candidates for that role could include Eloy Jimenez who produced outstanding triple slash numbers in his minor league career and could duplicate that with the White Sox with added experience much like Moncada did this past season. Robert might be another option with his unworldly metrics this past season across three minor league levels. Vaughn could also fit that role once he debuts in another year or two. His advanced bat coming out of college screamed #3 hitter even before he played his first pro game. Again, this should present the White Sox with another “fine” problem as they figure out their future batting order.
I’ll wrap up this “novel” comment with my own personal choice for the top-3 slots to begin the 2020 season. I’ll start with Robert as my leadoff hitter. He held that role for most all of this past season when posting those ridiculous numbers. I also consider him to be the player going forward with the best chance to regularly steal 30+ bases and even hit the 40 mark once Renteria trusts him with his own green light. I believe there might be less pressure on Robert leading off to begin his MLB career than for him to be counted on as an RBI producer in the middle third of the White Sox order which already looks to feature enough options, especially with Abreu’s likely return next year. Robert has had a full profesional season in the leadoff role and I don’t see any reason to alter that now. If the White Sox insist on “babying” Robert like they did with Jimenez in his 2019 debut season by dropping him further down from an “accustomed” role then Moncada would be my second choice to leadoff provided he is also given a green light in 2020. I’m hoping that Renteria trusts Robert enough to let him hit #1 in his rookie season, just as he did with Moncada in 2018.
This won’t be popular with the new geeks but my clear choice for the White Sox #2 hitter is Madrigal. He offers everything that a traditional prototypical #2 needs as I’ve already pointed out. Proponents of advanced analytics including the author here point to MLB’s best player Mike Trout batting second. Bryce Harper has also been inserted into that role on occasion in recent years despite superior metrics hitting third and cleanup. Last I checked, none of them has any postseason hardware and have been quick exists when they have managed to play in October. Kris Bryant is another elite talent that has been installed as a #2 hitter more often than not by a team driven by advanced analytics. While he did win a ring in 2016 his postseason numbers have been very pedestrian while his RBI output has been poor in comparison to his excellent OPS numbers the past 3 seasons. Bryant was always a prolific middle of the order run producer in college and in the minors but somehow the geeks on the northside convinced their genius manager that he would be better suited to hit second with the Cubs. This has always baffled me, especially when Joe Maddon had his long time supersub Ben Zobrist on the Cubs roster beginning in 2016. Few players in MLB fit the profile of a prototypical #2 bat better than Zobrist but Maddon saw fit to have Bryant in that role with the Cubs. Nobody will ever convince me that a team’s best overall hitter should bat second when they can produce better RBI numbers batting third like perennial MVP candidates Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and David Ortiz have done or in the cleanup slot where Cody Bellinger usually bats. Mookie Betts was an exception as the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox in 2018 when he took AL MVP honors but he is a 5-tool talent who could also steal bases, something that Robert may one day duplicate with the White Sox.
Finally (thankfully?), I will go with Moncada as my #3 hitter in 2020 provided that the White Sox new RF doesn’t profile better in that role. If that new lefty bat happens to be a power first one then he would fit nicely sandwiched between Abreu and Jimenez in the middle of the White Sox batting order with Anderson joining that days C and DH in the bottom third. If TA can up his OBP with more BB’s and not have to rely strictly on his BA then he would be an alternative to Robert at #1 with the latter utilizing his power a little further down in the lineup to produce more RBI’s. If Anderson can’t change his approach then I’m sticking with Robert at #1.
Of all the White Sox perceived core pieces going forward, Anderson may be the one most likely to depart anyway if he can’t improve his defensive consistency at SS. If T7 doesn’t stop with the E6 he may be SOL with the SOX.
Nice write up
Nice write up