Lately, rumors have been flowing about Jose Abreu‘s future with the White Sox. There appears to be significant interest in an extension from both Abreu and the White Sox front office. There seems to be a divide between White Sox fans, however: many are excited by the prospect of Abreu returning, but others are worried that he is not worth an extension or will be overpaid. From what I understand, the argument is being framed as a traditional statistics versus advanced statistics debate, but as a proponent of the latter, I do not see it that way.
The point of advanced statistics is not for fans to simply look at one number and move on. Yes, that is what people do with WAR, but it is not perfect and should always be viewed in conjunction with other metrics. I feel as though some Sox fans look at Jose Abreu’s fWAR (0.9) or wRC+ (110) and assume that he is an above average hitter who is in decline. He is also walking at a career low rate and is striking out 2% more often than he was last year, so such an opinion does have merit.
The above is fair analysis, but it is all a component of WAR. Avid readers of some of my past articles will note that I believe that players’ contact profiles are very important and in many cases more predictive of future offensive performance than anything else. Abreu’s contact profile is fantastic. He is 4th in baseball with 189 hard hit balls (95+ MPH) and is 13th in exit velocity among qualified hitters (by the way, Yoan Moncada is 2nd). Abreu may be selling out for power this year, but in this day and age, such a strategy is understandable for an aging slugger.
If Abreu were on any other team, I feel like Sox fans would be interested in signing him to a short-term deal to be the designated hitter. Instead, discussions about Abreu devolve into debates about traditional statistics, the value (or lack thereof) of leadership in baseball, and finally, the White Sox front office as a whole. In my opinion, it should be much simpler. Abreu’s traditional stats are good, and his advanced stats are only somewhat good. Regardless, his contact profile does not suggest that he is about to see a significant dip in production, so there is really no reason that fans should be opposed to Abreu signing a short-term deal after the season. The future of the first base position is likely Andrew Vaughn, but I am sure that Abreu will end up accepting a designated hitter role to stay with the team. If he can maintain his current production from such a role, he will be the least of the team’s problems.
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The notion of Abreu not being worthy of a re-sign is a “Come at me bro” hot take. Nobody seriously thinks it’s a good idea to launch Jose for one year of slightly better value as a bridge to Collins/Sheets/Vaughn/Burger/Jimenez.
I am a 63-year old White Sox fan who continues to value traditional stats as well as advanced analytics. I am also in the camp of those who would like to see Abreu not only receive a contract extension but also retire as a White Sox and become a team ambassador like former Cuban star Minnie Minoso.
I value Abreu’s intangible assets along with his still productive bat. What I don’t particularly care for is his defense at 1B despite his improvement over the years and willingness to work hard at it. As long as Abreu is open to embracing the DH role going forward none of this should be a problem. Despite the perception that Abreu has produced inferior numbers in the DH role his actual triple slash suggest his production is remarkably similar to what he accomplishes while playing 1B. In my mind, Abreu can keep 1B warm for Andrew Vaughn while also garnering a few more PA’s at DH in 2020, thus allowing Zack Collins some opportunity at the “3” position when the latter isn’t backing up James McCann at catcher.
Abreu’s leadership ability, particularly mentoring the White Sox young Hispanic players should never be discounted. He has been an important influence on Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez and should be allowed to continue that relationship with Luis Robert who he helped recruit when the 5-tool prospect was negotiating with other MLB teams as the last highly paid young international free agent prior to the rule change that now prohibits such signing bonuses. Abreu will not only continue to assist the young Latinos coming up through the pipeline but can also continue to recruit fresh young international talent.
There is also an argument to be made that any team on the cusp of transitioning from rebuilding status to one of contention needs veteran leadership to assist in that process. The White Sox would be foolish not to allow their current face of the franchise an opportunity to continue in that role along with acquiring a veteran TOR starting pitcher this offseason to anchor a young rotation.
Completely agree. Well said and thanks for reading!