It’s finally happening.
For over a month, there were seemingly no major trade rumors connecting White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease to other teams. But after a flurry of rumors over the past 36 hours, a deal has reportedly been made: according to Jeff Passan, the Chicago White Sox have traded Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres. The return includes right-handed pitchers Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Steven Wilson, as well as outfielder Samuel Zavala.
After a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022, Cease struggled throughout the 2023 season, finishing 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA/3.72 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate. However, he still has two full seasons of team control remaining, which has allowed him to retain such high value around the league.
The White Sox were in talks with the Padres, Rangers, Yankees, Giants, and other teams on Cease, but as has often been the case with the aggressive San Diego front office, the Padres presented the most compelling offer.
Drew Thorpe was acquired by the Padres from the New York Yankees in the deal earlier this offseason involving superstar outfielder Juan Soto. Ranked the #5 prospect in the Padres system and the #85 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline, Thorpe is a 23-year-old right-handed starting pitcher who dazzled in the minor leagues in 2023.
Between A+ Hudson Valley and AA Somerset, Thorpe logged 139.1 innings and provided a remarkable 2.52 ERA with 182 strikeouts to 38 walks. His strong peripherals were especially apparent in his 30.1 AA innings, during which Thorpe had a 40% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.
According to MLB Pipeline, Thorpe has a 70 grade change-up and 60 grade control. He is not an overpowering pitcher (91-95 MPH fastball), but his control on all pitches, dominant change-up, and developing slider give him a high floor. If Thorpe excels in AA this season, he is a candidate to make his MLB debut later in the year.
Samuel Zavala, the #7 prospect in the Padres system per MLB Pipeline, is a 19-year-old, left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder. Aside from perhaps Edgar Quero (who of course was acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline), Zavala represents a prospect archetype the White Sox don’t typically have — a capable defender who prioritizes walks and getting on base, even at a young age.
During his 2023 season, Zavala reached A+ Fort Wayne at just 18 years old. Between his 115 total games, including 101 at A Lake Elsinore, he hit .243/.391/.406 for a .797 OPS against much older competition. These numbers are also bogged down by what may have been an aggressive promotion to A+, as at A Lake Elsinore alone, Zavala hit .267/.420/.451 for a .871 OPS. His 14 home runs at the level are, again considering his age relative to competition, quite encouraging.
Perhaps most notable, for both positive and negative reasons, are Zavala’s 94 walks (18.3%) and 140 strikeouts (27.2%) between the two levels. Zavala has tremendous plate discipline for his age, but his leg kick (above) has led to some swing-and-miss issues. As he continues to develop, it will be important for Zavala to try and find a balance between power and contact considering his existing on-base skills.
Defensively, Zavala is most likely to stick in right field per MLB Pipeline, but he can handle center field when needed due to his strong arm and instincts. An ability to play center field regularly would, of course, lessen the need for Zavala to continue developing power, as a move to a corner outfield spot generally places a higher importance on offense/power production.
Jairo Iriarte is the #8 Padres prospect per Pipeline and is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher coming off a breakout season in the minor leagues. Like Thorpe, Iriarte produced eye-popping strikeout totals — 128 in 90.1 innings between A+ Fort Wayne and AA San Antonio. However, Iriarte struggles with command and walked 11.7% of the hitters he faced last season.
As a pitcher with plus grades on his three primary pitches (65 fastball, 55 slider, 55 change-up), one positive with Iriarte is that even if he does not have the control to make it as a starting pitcher, he could be a valuable reliever. However, starters with similar profiles, such as Freddy Peralta, have found success in the big leagues in recent years.
Also included in the trade is right-handed reliever Steven Wilson. Wilson is the only non-prospect in the deal from the Padres. At 29-years-old, Wilson remains under team control through the end of the 2027 season.
Wilson’s numbers don’t jump off the page initially — he has a lifetime 3.48 ERA, which is strong, but he struggles with walks and does not have overwhelming strikeout totals. However, his underlying metrics are fascinating. Last year, he threw sliders 60% of the time. Immediately, that might explain why he has higher than usual walk totals.
The walk rate (12.3% in 2023), however, should not be the main takeaway about Wilson. In 2023, his expected batting average against was just .184. Even with a high walk rate, his xwOBA was .285. This is largely because Wilson excels at preventing hard contact — his average exit velocity in 2023 was just 87.2 MPH (84th percentile), and his hard-hit rate was just 33.3% (85th percentile). While he is not the most conventional pitcher, these are very solid figures for a reliever (and are largely in line with his 2022 numbers, as well).
After months of speculation, the trade of Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres may still feel like a bit of a shock to fans. But considering the timing of the trade and the pedigree of the players involved, it is clear that the White Sox targeted an interesting mix of players. Wilson is an MLB reliever, Zavala is a few years away from contributing to a major league outfield, and both Thorpe and Iriarte could be regulars in an MLB rotation as soon as 2025.
While the trade package may have lacked a big name (not to undersell Thorpe) relative to past major White Sox trades — Sale, Eaton, and Quintana, specifically — the White Sox have landed three top-ten prospects from a strong farm system in addition to a reliever in Wilson with four years of control. Stay tuned as we continue to evaluate the return for Dylan Cease.
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Featured Photo: © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
I hope the hell this works out better than the last time the White Sox traded with San Diego for Tatis. Thanks Reindorf you tight ass, you still suck!