Central Intelligence continues today with our Crosstown Classic preview.
The Chicago Cubs faltered under Joe Maddon the past few seasons. After winning the World Series in 2016, the Cubs have not been back to the big dance yet; they lost the 2017 NLCS, the 2018 Wild Card Game, and missed the playoffs entirely in 2019. With the end of the 2019 season came the end of the Joe Maddon era in Chicago, as the Cubs ushered in David Ross as their new manager with the same high expectations.
This year, the Cubs got off to a blazing 13-3 start, but have cooled off a bit and sit at 16-8. Their rotation has been one of their strong points this season, as Yu Darvish has led the staff with a 4-1 record and 1.80 ERA. The Cubs have also been able to overcome slow starts at the plate from Javier Baez and Kris Bryant with help from Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. It will be up to the North Siders to put all of the pieces together if they hope to remain at the top of the NL Central for the rest of the year.
Cubs Background
- 2019 Record: 84-78, Finished 3rd in NL Central
- Postseason Results: Missed Postseason
- Last series vs. White Sox: Split 2-2 in 2019; Sox lead All-Time 66-62
- 2020 Record Entering Series: 16-8, 1st in NL Central
Inside Look
Ryan Ruhde of Diamond Digest (@Diamond_Digest) was kind enough to take the time to participate in this series’ version of Central Intelligence. Here’s what he had to say about the Cubs’ expectations, his definition of a “successful” season, and who the White Sox and their fans should watch out for in this series.
What are your expectations for the Cubs as the season has started to unfold? Have they changed since the season began?
Coming into the season, my expectation was that the Cubs would have a better than 50-50 shot to make the playoffs, especially with the expanded playoffs; still, I knew that with the team having a lot of potential weak spots on the roster, making the playoffs was far from a guarantee. This changed dramatically for myself and a lot of Cubs fans with a 13-3 start, but reality struck as the team has dropped three in a row to the Brewers and two of five to the Cardinals since then. Still, the Cubs are tied with the Dodgers for the biggest division lead in baseball. Additionally, only one other team in the division (Brewers) is even .500 at this point, the Reds have been seriously underwhelming, and the Cardinals have a brutal schedule for the rest of the season. I will say that the Cubs’s +15 run differential isn’t quite on par with the teams that are widely considered the best in baseball right now, but it has been good enough so far. The Cubs have stood out more than their division rivals, and that’s all it takes to make the playoffs, so my expectations as well as those of most Cubs fans are high.
What is the Cubs’ greatest strength that will help guide them to a successful 2020 campaign?
It feels like a boring answer to say defense, but the Cubs defense has continued to be good; especially when the loss of Javier Baez and the incorporation of Nicholas Castellanos led to a much less consistent defense at the end of 2019, a consistent defense (3rd best in baseball according to FanGraphs) has been an important part of the team’s success this season. While the offense and pitching have been somewhat in flux, the defense has contributed significantly to the Cubs having the 5th highest team position player fWAR in baseball. Part of why this also feels like the team’s best strength, at least so far, is that Kris Bryant and Javier Baez have still contributed good defense (excellent, in Baez’s case) in what have been abysmal offensive seasons for the two of them so far. Willson Contreras, having been excluded from talks of the game’s best catcher on account of subpar pitch framing, is now an average pitch framer and above average defensive catcher thus far as a result. Still, the defense has largely been carried by Baez, Contreras, and Albert Almora, with the rest of the team being near or below average defensively.
The Cubs will especially be hoping for more on defense from the outfield, as Jason Heyward is showing signs that he may not be the elite defensive right fielder he once was and Kyle Schwarber hasn’t shown much improvement from his -9 OAA in 2019. The Cubs, especially when they make defensive substitutions late in games, don’t have any considerable holes in their defense, and there’s a lot to be said for that and how much it can help the team through the remainder of the season.
One of the biggest moves for the Cubs this offseason came with the departure of Joe Maddon. What does David Ross bring to the dugout as a manager that Cubs fans in particular are excited about?
Most of the conversation about the transition from Maddon to Ross was that Ross would instill more urgency, something that many felt the team lacked as it faded towards the end of the season in each of the last two years. While this isn’t entirely attributable to the managerial change, and there are many other factors at play, one thing that has been notable about the Cubs this year is the energy in the dugout. Writers and fans alike have taken note of the fact that the team has been loud and energetic, especially with their hot start, and the players believe that this has translated into better play. This is notably easier to maintain during a 60 game season than a full 162 games, but for this year at least that energy which Ross engenders has appeared to benefit the mindsets of the players.
Obviously, Sox fans will know the big names from the Cubs – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo, to name a few. But, who is a player that flies under the radar for the Cubs that you believe has made the greatest impact this season?
Ian Happ. If he still flies under the radar, he won’t for long, but it’s difficult now to look back and believe that there was any doubt as to whether Happ would be the team’s starting center fielder. Currently Happ has the 11th highest walk percentage, 9th highest on base percentage, and has hit six homers to post a 191 wRC+ that ties him for baseball’s fifth best hitter so far. With defense that has been average (and still may improve – his defensive statistics have largely been erratic in small sample sizes during his time in the majors), Happ is the 5th best position player in baseball this season by fWAR. Happ hasn’t just been the Cubs’ best under the radar player, he has been the team’s best player, and his production likely isn’t going anywhere – he was the 9th overall draft pick in 2015 and has never posted a wRC+ below 106 in any of his four seasons in the Major Leagues, so this is far from a fluke.
How do you expect the Cubs’ pitching to hold up throughout the season? Do you believe the Cubs have the depth to make it through the injury sustained to Jose Quintana?
The Cubs’ starting pitching should be just fine for the remainder of the season, if not better than most fans expected. After a rough first start of the year, Yu Darvish has been excellent, and he and Kyle Hendricks are two of baseball’s top 10 starters so far by fWAR. Jon Lester has been perfectly serviceable with a 2.74 ERA that, while boosted by some luck, is good for a third starter. While Tyler Chatwood is now on the 10 day IL with back tightness, he has shown a great cutter that helped him to two of the best starts of his career to open the season, giving fans hope for his redemption. The team has hardly batted an eye thus far with Quintana’s injury, but now with Chatwood going down, the depth of starting pitching is put to the test. The good news is that Chatwood is halfway through his IL stint, Alec Mills has been exactly what you’d expect from a number five starter on a good team, and while Quintana isn’t quite available yet for this weekend, he’s throwing simulated games and his return is on the horizon. With the pitching staff at full strength, the starting rotation may prove to be the team’s biggest strength down the stretch.
The bullpen is, notoriously, less certain. The Cubs bullpen has the eighth highest bullpen ERA thanks to the fifth highest BB/9 and the eighth highest HR/9 of all bullpens in MLB. For a team that’s looking to remain competitive, that won’t fly, and that is certainly a testament to some good luck given how well the team is still doing. The Cubs have predictably seen quite a bit of bullpen turnover, and that likely won’t change as they continue to search for success from any relievers not named Jeremy Jeffress or Rowan Wick. The Cubs are undoubtedly lucky that they hit on Jeffress so far, as he was a gamble after a rough 2019 season. Craig Kimbrel still has quite a bit to figure out, but as of right now has strung together three consecutive strong outings, with 3 IP, 7K, 1BB, and no hits allowed between them. If Kimbrel is truly returning to form (still a big if), David Ross is up to three fairly reliable bullpen arms, but ultimately will still need more. The consistency of the bullpen is, more than anything else, the biggest concern for the Cubs for the remainder of the season.
Do you expect significant contributions from any rookies this season?
On the position player side, the one rookie with a major role is Nico Hoerner. While he was rushed to the Major Leagues in the wake of Baez’s injury last season, Hoerner has mostly held his own in the bigs, but he’s certainly not yet the player the Cubs were hoping for when they drafted him in the first round of 2018. Personally, while opportunities for development are limited, I think that ideally Hoerner will have more time in the minor leagues to develop before he is promoted to Chicago for good, but hopefully he will pick things up and be able to contribute in a greater capacity for the remainder of the season. Starter Alec Mills is also in his rookie year, and he looks to remain in his role as a serviceable inning eater even if the returns of Chatwood and Quintana push him to the bullpen.
Rookies are much more of a presence in the bullpen, and the contributions of rookie relievers will continue to be vital to the team’s success. The aforementioned Rowan Wick and Alec Mills are two of seven pitchers with less than a year of Major League service time that the Cubs are hoping will contribute this season, and while Wick has been excellent so far, the team will need more from Adbert Alzolay, Duane Underwood Jr., Dillon Maples, Brad Wieck and James Norwood to really help the bullpen carry their weight. Any one of these pitchers is capable of having big league success, but they haven’t really found that success yet. It will be crucial that at least one more of them hits his stride for the Cubs to stay rolling for the remainder of the season. While many prospects have made it to the majors already in a season which they would have normally spent in the minors, I don’t think that any of the Cubs’ other three top prospects – Brennan Davis, Miguel Amaya and Brailyn Marquez – will crack the big leagues this year. The only exception to that will be if the front office really feels like the pitching staff needs some help, in which case they may call on Marquez or 2020 draftee Burl Carraway.
What’s your prediction for where the Cubs will finish the season given the start they’ve gotten off to?
I think that in signature Cubs fashion, the team will make things interesting down the stretch (see: the nine game losing streak to miss the playoffs last season and the Brewers taking the Cubs over for the division title down the stretch in 2018). Still, FanGraphs gives the Cubs better than ⅔ odds to win the division, and the second highest chance to make the playoffs in the National League at 96%. The offense has been good even with hardly any contributions from Bryant and Baez, two players that should be among the strongest offensive contributors – if they are able to pick things up, the Cubs offense will be very deep. As I mentioned, the defense and rotation have been strong, and I believe that they have enough pitchers in their system to work out a serviceable bullpen as the season progresses. Ten of their remaining games are against the Tigers and Pirates, and while these are not guaranteed wins they are certainly nice to have on the schedule to cut through the tougher matchups. The team’s most important games will be against the Reds: the Cubs have already played seven of their ten games against the Brewers and five of ten with the Cardinals, but the Reds are the sole contender in the NL Central against whom the Cubs still have seven games remaining. Those games will prove very formative for the outcome of the division, as will the remaining series with the Brewers and Cardinals.
With 36 games left, the Cubs could split the rest of the season at an even 18-18 and still finish with a 34-26 record that’s as good as anyone could have predicted to start the season and would certainly be sufficient to earn a playoff spot. I think the Cubs will do a game or two better than that, with something like a 20-16 record to close out the year at 36-24 and win the NL Central.
Probable Starters
Friday: Dallas Keuchel (3-2, 3.07 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (2-0, 2.74 ERA), 7:15 CT
Saturday: Dylan Cease (4-1, 3.16 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (3-2, 3.31 ERA), 7:15 CT
Sunday: TBA vs. Yu Darvish (4-1, 1.80 ERA), 1:20 CT
On behalf of everyone at Sox On 35th, I’d like to thank Ryan for taking the time out to talk about the 2020 Cubs with us! You can find him on Twitter @Ruhdolph, and you can find Diamond Digest on Twitter (@Diamond_Digest) or at diamond-digest.com. Make sure to check out all their fine work over there! (Though as the Editor-in-Chief there, I might be biased in how much I enjoy their work…)
Featured Photo: White Sox/Twitter
