Central Intelligence: Cincinnati Reds

Our Central Intelligence series concludes today with the start of the series against the Cincinnati Reds.

At just 25-26 through 51 games, the Cincinnati Reds certainly can’t be happy with their current outlook. They sit just 0.5 games ahead of the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, but 5.5 games behind the Cubs for first. After trading for Trevor Bauer and signing players such as Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos, it appeared the Reds were going all-in for 2020. However, all the pieces just haven’t clicked for the Reds – thus they find themselves playing must-win games this weekend against the best team in the AL Central thus far.

Reds Background

2019 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL Central
Postseason Results: Missed Postseason
Last series vs. White Sox: Reds went 2-1 in 2018; Sox Lead All-Time Series 20-11
2020 Record Entering Series: 25-26, 2nd in NL Central

Inside Look

Wick Terrell of Red Reporter (@redreporter) was kind enough to take the time to participate in this series’ version of Central Intelligence. Here’s what he had to say about the Reds’ expectations, his definition of a “successful” season, and who the White Sox and their fans should watch out for in this series.

Note: Questions were answered back in July – an interesting look at how expectations may have been met/exceeded or not.

What are your expectations for the Reds as a fan as we enter the 2020 season?

Well, that’s become a bit of a moving target with the constant rule changes. If you’d have asked me a week ago, I’d have said ‘playoffs or bust,’ but now MLB has expanded the playoffs to include more than half of all teams. That seems like a cop-out for this Reds club, who I think should be better than just sneaking in. Since the playoffs are such a crapshoot even in normal years, it’s hard to pinpoint my exact “they should advance this far” feelings, so I’ll just say this – this Reds club is good enough to win 35-38 of their 60 games, which should put a shot at the NL Central division crown firmly in their sights.

What are some of the advantages/disadvantages for the Reds with a regional schedule for the 2020 season?

I feel like Midwest clubs largely lucked out travel-wise, as teams in the West will end up logging almost three times as many miles this season. That’s less time on planes, trains, and in automobiles, which is always a bonus. Also, if you can dodge the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Braves until the playoffs, I’d say that’s a big bonus. The only real disadvantage is the unfamiliarity with opponents in the AL Central, but that’s something all clubs face. Honestly, I think the Reds got a very advantageous draw, and it’s just up to them to capitalize on it.

The Reds made a lot of moves throughout the 2019 season and the 2020 offseason that have put them in a position to compete this year. Which trade/signing do you feel will have the greatest impact on the Reds’ ability to compete in a tough NL Central?

Here’s one of those instances where the week or so between being asked and actually submitting a response rears its ugly head. Initially, I’d have said Mike Moustakas, as the 4-year, $64 million deal given to him looked like a perfect fit given GABP’s tiny dimensions and his fly-ball proclivity. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure he is going to test positive for COVID-19 (today is the 26th, and he’s already been placed on the IL), and who knows how long he’ll be sidelined now. That leaves Trevor Bauer (acquired at last year’s deadline) and Nick Castellanos as the two most prominent additions, and I think both will be vital to the Reds chances. Bauer’s off to an excellent start – 6.1 IP, ER, 13/1 K/BB – while Castellanos has yet to catch fire, but that’s the kind of pitching and offensive catalyst that the Reds needed to get over the hump.

Where do the Reds’ biggest strengths lie as a team? Where should Sox fans expect to see the biggest impact come from in a series against the Reds in 2020?

Even with the additions of Moose, Castellanos, and Shogo Akiyama, the starting rotation is the team’s biggest weapon. Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley headline an elite-level staff, while Anthony DeSclafani will hopefully be back in that mix after missing just one start. That top three opened the year by combining for 18.1 IP, 3 ER, and an absurd 33/5 K/BB in their opening three-game series, and honestly, none of it was terribly surprising. With pitching gurus Derek Johnson and Kyle Boddy (of Driveline fame) on staff, that’s hands down the strength of the team, and it even includes several guys who have had outstanding success in the AL already, too, so hopefully, the addition of the DH in all games won’t skew their numbers at all.

How do you feel the Sox match up against the Reds as a team?

Very well, actually. Both teams swung big this winter, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find that every free agent signed by the two clubs this winter also held offers from the other. I know the Reds had significant interest in former draftee Yasmani Grandal, for instance. Point being, I think they have been built very similarly, with a lot of power potential offensively and high-K arms in their rotations, and both clubs are very obviously ready to emerge from their lengthy rebuilds. Now, if we can just get Eloy and Senzel to break out in 2020 the way we hope they will…

What’s the main topic Reds fans are discussing that maybe isn’t obvious to other teams?

The bullpen. I say that after watching it blow a pair of games to the Tigers on Opening Weekend, but that was probably the big concern before that, anyway. While the Reds have invested heavily in the lineup and starting rotation, the bullpen got very little overhaul despite having ample struggles last year at times, too. Raisel Iglesias has become incredibly homer-prone, while Michael Lorenzen has tweaked his delivery to disastrous early results. Pedro Strop was the lone addition from outside the organization this winter, and even he comes with questions after his velocity was well down last year. There is ample talent down there – Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson have two of the filthiest out pitches in the game, if they can locate them – but there’s not a ton of proven experience there, and it has already hit them hard. While the Reds went with very proven quantities for the rest of their roster, there’s still a lot of ‘hope and pray’ when it comes to the relievers.

What would you consider a successful season for the Reds as a team that looks to be on the Wild Card bubble?

Advancing in the playoffs, given the new format. I think it’s as simple as that. It’s been since 1995, which is completely absurd, with few seasons that even sniffed the actual playoffs to begin with, and frankly, it would be hard to stomach another year of that given the expanded playoff format.

Probable Starters

Friday: Jonathan Stiever (0-0, 2.45 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (1-2, 4.31 ERA), 6:10 CT
Saturday: Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 2.19 ERA) vs. TBD, 6:07 CT
Sunday: TBD vs. TBD, 12:10 CT

On behalf of everyone at Sox On 35th, I’d like to thank Wick for taking the time out to talk about the 2020 Reds with us! You can find him on Twitter @wickterrell, and you can find Red Reporter on Twitter (@redreporter) or at www.redreporter.com. Make sure to check out all their work over there!

Featured Photo: Cincinnati Reds/Twitter