Last year around the trade deadline, I wrote a similarly themed article about who the White Sox should consider targeting given their situation in the standings. Considering 1 of 3 players I said the Sox should trade for was actually traded (Nick Solak from TBR to TEX) for a similar package to that which I suggested, I decided to try it again this year.
As of Tuesday morning, the White Sox are 17-12. They are sitting pretty in the expanded playoffs, and for the first time in years, are a team that should consider buying in some fashion at the trade deadline.
The problems this year are unlike others. With the expanded playoffs and only 30 or so games with which to make a decision on your team, it’s hard to say how many sellers will be in the market, especially with the anticipated increase in buyers. Additionally, the lack of a minor league season and limited availability of data on players in alternate sites makes it harder to try and trade for minor league players. Finally, specifically to the White Sox, it’s hard to say this team is in a place to trade away too many prospects for a 30-game rental player in some cases. Rick Hahn is going to have to balance this fact with any short-term gains he attempts for this team as they pursue the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
With that, let’s begin with some of the players I think Rick Hahn should consider targeting at the trade deadline, and my best guess at what an initial trade offer would look like. My initial offer likely isn’t my best – and it shouldn’t be. Regardless, try to look at the names I would consider targeting rather than the offers I put out there. I’m a blogger, not a GM, no matter how many fantasy teams I have.
Kevin Gausman, SP, SFG
Contract Status: 29 years old, Free Agent after 2020
Every team will be looking to bolster its starting pitching. With questions marks still surrounding Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon, Gio Gonzalez, and, to a lesser degree, Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning, the White Sox could consider bolstering their depth a little bit further with a trade for Gausman.
Coming from the rebuilding Giants and unlikely to make more than 5-6 starts for a new team, Gausman would be a fantastic buy-low move for the Sox. Gausman has a 4.65 ERA (3.11 FIP, 2.91 xFIP) on the season in 6 games (5 starts) with some pretty interesting StatCast numbers:
He’s striking out 31% of batters on the season at walking just 4%, with an xwOBA of just .322. If the 14-16 Giants do in fact look to sell off, Gausman is the type of depth that a team heading into the playoffs would be looking for. He has good, but not great, stuff and will likely serve as a backup option for most teams who are looking to buy at the trade deadline. He’s not the shiniest option that will likely be on the market, but is likely one the Sox can get as a cheap upgrade.
TRADE: Kevin Gausman for Luis Gonzalez and a PTBNL. You’re likely going to see a lot of PTBNL trades this year, because there are a lot of players on a team’s 60-man roster that they have absolutely no intention of trading. Truthfully, that’s another reason that makes trading so hard for teams this year – a lot of AAAA type players that would go into these trades (the Ryan Cordell‘s and Casey Gillaspie‘s of the world) aren’t on most team’s 60-man rosters currently. However, Luis Gonzalez is someone I’d be very comfortable trading for a rental – truthfully, most teams are going to take almost anything for a rental when the alternative is losing them for nothing in the offseason. Other guys I’d consider here: Bernardo Flores, Tyler Johnson, Ian Hamilton, or even a position player like Seby Zavala.
Scott Barlow, RP, KCR
Contract Status: 27 years old, 4 years of control remaining
One way teams can choose to build up their pitching staff is through the rotation. Another way to do it is, in a very modern baseball fashion, through their bullpen. The White Sox have built a pretty solid bullpen full of homegrown arms. However, with the recent struggles/inconsistencies from both Steve Cishek and Jimmy Cordero, and the injury to Aaron Bummer, the White Sox could use some reinforcements.
There’s a pretty consistent rule: rebuilding teams don’t need good relief pitchers. There’s few leads for them to protect, and they likely won’t be around when the team is eventually competing. Scott Barlow fits this role perfectly. He has had three seasons worth of success with the Royals, posting a career 3.73 ERA and 126 ERA+ (where 100 is league average) out of the bullpen.
With his fastball averaging 95 mph, he fits right at home in the back end of the White Sox bullpen. His slider and curve are solid breaking pitches, though his slider isn’t moving as much as it did last year. Regardless, at 27 years old with a track record of success, the White Sox should feel comfortable plugging him into the bullpen and strengthening a current team strength for the playoff push. How willing the Royals are to give up a solid reliever with 4 years of control depends on how far out the Royals think they are from competing. If the answer is 2 or more, all assets should go.
TRADE: Scott Barlow for Bernardo Flores and Ian Hamilton/PTBNL. Trade less-experienced players for an experienced and proven arm out of the back of the bullpen. Would the Royals take it? I don’t even know – trying to evaluate relief pitcher trades in this season is probably the hardest thing to do. Other names I’d potentially add here are Tyler Johnson, Seby Zavala, Luis Gonzalez, Blake Rutherford, or Yermin Mercedes. Look, I’m not trying to overpay for anyone this trade deadline if I’m Rick Hahn, especially a RP. The Sox have been good at signing those types of players off the bargain bin and turning them into quality arms (Marshall, Cordero).
Robbie Ray, SP, ARI
Contract Status: 29 years old, Free Agent after 2020
Robbie Ray is an interesting name that has been popping up in trade rumors recently. A 12th round draft pick back in 2010, Ray has seen a decent amount of success in his career (48-49, 4.25 ERA) for someone who was drafted as a high school player. He has consistently had issues keeping runners off base via the walk, given his career 4.1 BB/9, but with a career 11.1 K/9, he certainly strikes out his fair share of batters.
However, if I’m trading for Robbie Ray, I’m not trading for him to be a starter for the White Sox. I’m trading for him to be a lefty reliever out of the bullpen who has the ability to make spot starts. I just can’t trust someone who’s put up numbers like this to start the year to be a quality rotation piece.
With a walk rate around 19% and an 8.33 ERA on the season, Ray has clearly taken a step back in a contract year. I think it could be a curious situation of the Diamondbacks. It appears teams are thinking along similar lines and valuing Ray as a reliever. If they do, could his value drop so low that the Diamondbacks don’t even entertain trading him? Doubtful, but at the same time, if the Diamondbacks think they’re making a run in the playoffs, anything can happen.
TRADE: Robbie Ray for Blake Rutherford and a PTBNL. I’m not trying to give up very much for Ray honestly, and my final offer wouldn’t be much higher than this. Other names I might include are a reliever (Thompson) or one of the names mentioned above in other trades. Honestly, though I’m interested in Ray and think the White Sox should inquire on him, not a lot is going to go into my offer for him – or any 30 game rental for that matter.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
Contract Status: 26 years old, 2 years of control remaining
Would it be a good trade article without at least one buy-low, low-risk, high-reward trade? The Boston Red Sox are in a position where they are not nearly good enough to compete with the pitching staff as currently constructed. Even with Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez returning next year, there are not enough starters on this team to make a run at the Yankees, Rays, or rising Blue Jays for the time being. Instead, the Red Sox should focus on re-tooling, and Benintendi is a name who could draw interest.
How did Benintendi end up on this list? Well, his stat line over the previous few seasons tell the story:
Outside of a stellar 2018, Benintendi has yet to reach that ceiling of his as an elite prospect that he had going into his rookie year. He was off to a horrid start before injuring his ribs this year, and these facts, coupled with the struggling Red Sox, have led to Benintendi’s name floating around in trade rumors.
Now, the question is this: would the Red Sox trade Benintendi at what could very well the low point of his value, especially with Kevin Pillar as the current RF and Jackie Bradley Jr.in a contract year? But, to play Devil’s Advocate: do they take the risk that his stock falls any farther? These are interesting thoughts that ran through my mind as I put this article together. Like I said, it’s not a trade deadline article without some interesting deal such as this one.
The counterpoint here for Sox fans: wanting a sure thing in RF heading into 2020. Benintendi doesn’t necessarily give that any more than Mazara did, especially because I’ve already admitted I’d be taking a risk by trading for Benintendi. The difference between Mazara and Benintendi is that, at one point, Benintendi hit on his upside with a 4 fWAR season. Mazara, for all the potential he has, has never once hit on it. They’re similar as former top prospects who have struggled, but are also very different.
TRADE: Andrew Benintendi for Johnathan Stiever, Matthew Thompson, Luis Gonzalez, and a PTBNL. The Red Sox need pitching. This is some long-term pitching depth here for them, and likely a top-100 prospect in Stiever. Other names I’d potentially include/swap out here: Andrew Dalquist, Zack Collins, and, depending on how other moves go, Reynaldo Lopez. I don’t know, I love Benintendi, so it’s at least worth calling on him. However, I think some of these names I included here get you a controllable arm instead, and if that’s the case, you choose that route 10 out of 10 times.
Other Names to Keep an Eye On
The above are just some of my suggestions, based on what I guess the likely price would be for each player. However, some other names to look out for in connection to the White Sox could be players like Lance Lynn, Johnny Cueto, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Rosenthal, Tommy La Stella, or Kole Calhoun. I think we are far more likely to see the White Sox either stand pat at the trade deadline or trade for some pitching than trade for any offensive additions. I also think rentals are cheaper and far more likely for the Sox than finding a controllable arm to trade for – these are moves likely left for the offseason.
Sox Prospects Most Likely to be Traded
Though they were not all necessarily included in the above trade deals because of the quality/contract of players coming back, several White Sox players are likely to have more value than others. Zack Collins, Johnathan Stiever, Yermin Mercedes, Matthew Thompson, Bernardo Flores, and Andrew Dalquist are likely to be the names included in these deals. If these seem like underwhelming names that might lead to underwhelming returns, well, let’s talk about the reality of this trade deadline.
The Reality of the 2020 Trade Deadline
Over the course of the coming days, pay close attention to the players that the White Sox add to the alternate site roster out in Schaumburg. If the names feel like they are out of nowhere, there’s a chance they might be trying to discuss them in trades – remember, trades can only come from players on a team’s 60-man roster.
If you’re underwhelmed by this deadline or the names I included as targets, well, you’re likely going to have similar feelings to many fan bases. There are very few teams who are going to be able to afford the over-priced assets at this trade deadline. Heck, if this were a normal trade deadline, I’d feel more confident in building trade proposals. However, that’s just not how this year is – the team’s with the most depth at the top of the standings are going to be the ones who prosper this trade deadline.
The White Sox don’t really seem to be willing to trade Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal, or Michael Kopech. Those are your best trade chips, and if you’re not going to trade those, the return is going to be underwhelming at best. I mean, look at Luis Basabe was traded for – cash considerations. I doubt those mid-tier players (outside of Johnathan Stiever and Matthew Thompson, who I believe have concrete value) are going to garner much of a return, despite how Sox fans value them. Then again, that small return might be just what the Sox are looking for, in the case of guys like Gausman and Ray.
This trade deadline is likely to be unlike any other. Let’s see what fun it brings in the coming days.
Thoughts? Have some players you’d like the Sox to trade for? Let me know below in the comments or on Twitter! @jlazowski14
