FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections reveal clear White Sox holes

Today, FanGraphs released its yearly ZiPS projections for the current White Sox roster, and it’s safe to say that it sees the same holes the White Sox should heading into 2023.

ZiPS was created by Dan Szymborski, who describes his work, at a high level, in the following way:

“At its core, however, it’s still doing two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.”

You can read more about how Szymborski creates the projections by clicking here, and you can read the entirety of the projections for the White Sox by using the Twitter link below.

Team Projections

Szymborski started with a scathing review of how the White Sox have handled their team once it came time to spend in free agency, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

“The White Sox did so many things well while building up the team, but they face-planted as soon as it was time to compete. Once the fun began, the discipline in the team’s decision-making disappeared. Want the 1980s manager for no reason? Sure! Need to solve the problem of two of your best young bats both essentially being designated hitters? Split the difference and have neither of them be the DH! Surely all that money you were going to use to sign Manny Machado will go towards other budgetary needs? Nope? Well, you’ve got Leury Garcia.”

At this moment, the White Sox are slated to amass a total of 35.9 zWAR (ZiPS WAR) based on this roster alone. If you estimate that a team full of 0 WAR players wins about 48 games, then the additional projected WAR would put the White Sox in the 83-win range based on this roster – far from the sort of 93-95 win team fans were hoping to put on the field at the beginning of this rebuild.

It’s also worth noting that these are 50th-percentile projections that take into account the brutal seasons that most of this team had. So, it’s entirely plausible that many players (Grandal, Moncada, Jimenez) outperform their projections. However, with less then 2.0 zWAR projected from both corner OF positions, 2B, and 1B, the White Sox’s perceived holes by fans match exactly what projections seem to think about the team’s roster.

Pitcher Projections

Szymborski credits the White Sox with putting together a pretty strong bullpen and starting rotation – but notes that the rotation is not without its risks:

“If Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger all start 30 games, everything in the rotation ought to look hunky-dory. But if there’s an injury or two, things get dark — and I mean in the Darren Aronofsky sense — very quickly.” 

In terms of projections themselves, here’s what the team could look like from some of the key contributors:

• Dylan Cease: 13-8, 3.43 ERA, 176.0 IP, 29.5 K%, 9.7 BB%, 3.6 WAR
• Lucas Giolito: 10-9, 3.97 ERA, 158.2 IP, 26.0 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.4 WAR
• Lance Lynn: 9-7, 3.90 ERA, 131.2 IP, 24.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 2.0 WAR
• Michael Kopech: 6-7, 4.24 ERA, 108.1 IP, 24.1 K%, 9.6 BB%, 1.5 WAR
• Mike Clevinger: 6-8, 4.58 ERA, 114.0 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.2 BB%, 1.1 WAR
• Liam Hendriks: 5-3, 3.16 ERA, 57.0 IP, 35.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, 1.7 WAR
• Kendall Graveman: 4-2, 3.53 ERA, 58.2 IP, 23.0 K%, 9.3 BB%, 1.1 WAR
• Aaron Bummer: 3-2, 3.18 ERA, 51.0 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.1 WAR
• Joe Kelly: 2-2, 3.72 ERA, 36.1 IP, 27.7 K%, 11.9 BB%, 0.4 WAR
• Reynaldo Lopez: 7-7, 4.16 ERA, 97.1 IP, 23.0 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1.3 WAR
• Garrett Crochet: 4-3, 3.70 ERA, 48.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 13.1 BB%, 0.6 WAR
• Jake Diekman: 3-4, 4.50 ERA, 50.0 IP, 28.6 K%, 13.8 BB%, 0.1 WAR

So, FanGraphs is projected bounceback seasons from Lucas Giolito and Joe Kelly while projecting Dylan Cease as the consistently clear ace of this staff. Lynn’s total IP of 131.2 feels low but is likely driven as part of an age factor that is natural with pitchers. The White Sox are also likely expecting more from both Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet, in terms of performance (Kopech) and innings (Crochet).

Overall, based on the projections, even with some disagreements, it’s pretty clear that this is not where the White Sox’s issues lie.

Position Player Projections

The position player side of things is where – understandably – most of the concerns are for the White Sox. After a year of injury/underperformance, the projections reflect a team that needs to bounce back but also needs to be adding quality bats to its lineup:

“Many of the elements of an excellent offense are on the roster; having Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson, and Andrew Vaughn is a great start, but it’s not a finish. Even with injury a concern for the majority of that list, the team took a lackadaisical approach to dealing with its holes, either leaving them unaddressed or slapping in whoever could be acquired inexpensively. Just like last year, the Sox need to address second base, DH, and an outfield position at a bare minimum. This time around, it’s even more urgent; the projections of most of the principals anticipate worse performance in less playing time than before the 2022 season.”

Here are the projections from some of the key contributors for the roster:

• Yoan Moncada: .251/.329/.413, 105 OPS+, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, 2.2 WAR
• Luis Robert: .273/.319/.464, 114 OPS+, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB, 2.8 WAR
• Yasmani Grandal: .226/.353/.397, 108 OPS+, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB, 2.7 WAR
• Eloy Jimenez: .269/.321/.487, 120 OPS+, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB, 1.2 WAR
• Andrew Vaughn: .267/.336/.482, 124 OPS+, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 0 SB, 2.2 WAR
• Tim Anderson: .293/.324/.432, 108 OPS+, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 14 SB, 2.0 WAR
• Lenyn Sosa: .245/.286/.378, 83 OPS+, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 2 SB, 1.0 WAR
• Gavin Sheets: .244/.303/.415, 97 OPS+, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB, 0.2 WAR
• Oscar Colas: .237/.283/.408, 89 OPS+, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, 0.6 WAR
• Seby Zavala: .198/.264/.356, 73 OPS+, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 0 SB, 0.6 WAR

There is good news and bad news here. The good news is that these projections like Andrew Vaughn’s ability to make up for what the team will be losing with Jose Abreu. The bad news, among other things, is that the projections don’t like the White Sox’s likely RF solution in Oscar Colas. Szymborski explained this as follows:

“Some may be disappointed by the Oscar Colas projection, but the fact remains that he’s incredibly risky right now, a player with one professional season in the United States and at levels for which he was not young. In addition, offense exploded in most of the minor leagues in 2022, so there’s more air to take out of the statistics than usual. Chicago should be risk-averse when it comes to starters.”

Overall though, there is a lot of projected bounce-back in terms of performance, though there are plenty of concerns over health. Robert, Grandal, Anderson, and Jimenez all project to get under 500 plate appearances, rangings from 450-470 plate appearances. So, as mentioned in the opening, health remains a legitimate concern for this team and should be among the highest priorities – outside of ensuring that they complete their outfield and have some options for second base.

Other Notes

The ZiPS projections, at the end of the day, are just projections. If the White Sox are serious about fixing their internal processes and improving their strength and conditioning/sports science departments, then most of the team is likely set to outperform their 50th-percentile projections. For a look at what things may look like if they go well – or horribly wrong – the projections on FanGraphs also give the 80th percentile and 20th percentile outcomes for White Sox players.

At the end of the day, projections are fun to look at, but they shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a be-all-end-all. However, they should be viewed as being very historical, measured systems for player evaluation that teams all have their own versions of in-house. It’s always interesting to see these and how they eventually play out over the course of a season, but for the White Sox, these projections are also a reminder that the status quo certainly is not good enough, especially with Jose Abreu off to Houston.

You can view all the detailed projections once again by clicking here.

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Featured Image: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports