Sox On 35th’s 2020 Season Predictions

The excitement and fast pace of a 60-game season officially begins this week. Before it starts, eight of our writers here at Sox On 35th submitted their predictions for the upcoming season. While projecting such a short season is plenty difficult, it is clear the White Sox have so much young talent that even diehard fans cannot agree on which players are better bets to have standout performances in 2020.

Let us know what you think of our predictions!

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Record

Joe Binder | Founder & Owner

• Prediction: 34-26

The shortened 2020 season presents so many unknowns for this White Sox team. While veteran studs like Yasmani Grandal and Dallas Keuchel have been added to the mix, rising prospects like Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal are friendly reminders that this club still has some developing to do. I think how quickly these young guys can adapt along with how well the pitching staff performs will greatly determine the outcome of this team. That being said, I find it hard to believe this club will come away with a record worse than 30-30. Realistically, I could see the Sox finishing anywhere between 30-37 wins, though I’ll put the final total at 34.

Jordan Lazowski | Editor-in-Chief

• Prediction: 33-27

I said 35-25 before on one of our podcasts, but I think not having Michael Kopech for the season will hurt the team a little bit. Ultimately, Kopech’s presence on the team will not be the deciding factor for their playoff aspirations, but even in the shortened season, his absence will be felt in the final record. The White Sox, on paper, are a .500 team at worst. The 2020 season’s importance is not in the final record, however, but in giving necessary development time to Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and even possibly names like Dane Dunning, Jimmy Lambert, and Codi Heuer. Factoring in these necessary steps in development and adjustments with the team’s raw talent, any record at or above .500 for the Sox this season is a step in the right direction for 2021.

Nik Gaur | Managing Editor

• Prediction: 32-28

I think the 2020 White Sox are a slightly better than average team, which puts them in the 30-35 win range this year. They’ll need to be at the higher end of that range in order to make the playoffs, but such an outcome is certainly possible.

Tim Moran | Analyst

• Prediction: 35-25

In an extended division featuring several good-not-great teams and a few bottom-feeders, the White Sox are facing a relatively easy .486 strength of schedule. In addition, they don’t have any extended rough patches in the schedule that could change the course of the season, so I think this team can be expected to perform about to their talent level. Based on that, I think this is an above-average club with the potential for 30-40 wins.

Patrick Roelofs | Analyst

• Prediction: 33-27

The White Sox, Twins, and Indians benefit greatly from the new 60-game schedule, as they each get to play one-third of their season against teams that lost at least 103 games in 2019 (Royals and Tigers). On top of that, they get to play the NL Central, which lacks one true powerhouse team.

I see the Sox winning seven against Detroit, six against Kansas City, five against Cleveland, and four against Minnesota. Add in three wins against the Cubs, Brewers, and Pirates, and two wins against St. Louis, and you’ve got 33 wins. In this scenario, the Sox would only win one of their season series by more than one game and would drop the season series to Minnesota. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched to me.

Jake Bartecki | Contributor

• Prediction: 36-24

The White Sox are at their best in the heat of the summer. They are also at a point now where they are contenders, especially in a shortened season where it’s truly anyone’s game.

Noah Phalen | Contributor

• Prediction: 34-26

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Team MVP

Joe Binder: Yasmani Grandal

I think out of all the fans you ask, the majority would predict Yoan Moncada to be this year’s Team MVP and rightfully so. He’s arguably the best player on this roster and after the success he had in 2019, the third baseman is primed to continue on his upward path. However, I love the addition of Yasmani Grandal to this lineup and think his impact will be felt immensely both from an offensive standpoint and a catching standpoint. His veteran, left-handed bat provides plenty of pop in a right-handed heavy lineup, which was so desperately needed for the Sox. Include his incredible work ethic with the pitching staff and top of the line framing, and it’s obvious that Grandal will have wide-reaching effects on this team from top to bottom.

Jordan Lazowski: Yasmani Grandal

Yoan Moncada is the easy answer here – which is why I’m not taking him. Yasmani Grandal’s bat will no doubt bring a stabilizing presence to the middle of the lineup that helps to take the pressure off both the young guys and veterans like Jose Abreu. At the same time, Grandal will be the best framing catcher the Sox have had since Tyler Flowers, and his effect on the pitching staff has already been well-documented in multiple articles. If Grandal continues to hit as he has throughout his career and we see the entire pitching staff take leaps forward, I think it’s impossible to say anyone except Yasmani Grandal is the team MVP for the year.

Nik Gaur: Yoan Moncada

Moncada was likely the team MVP last year (although I would accept arguments for Giolito), and I predict he follows up with a similar showing. Look for him to come back with a higher walk rate as pitchers try to attack him differently. In addition to Moncada, I could easily see Yasmani Grandal, Lucas Giolito, or even Luis Robert in this conversation.

Tim Moran: Yoan Moncada

Moncada was Chicago’s best player last year, and although he’ll face some tough competition from Yasmani Grandal and maybe Lucas Giolito, I think he’ll continue to be the top-of-the-order anchor this team needs, making him my favored MVP candidate.

Patrick Roelofs: Yoan Moncada

As it stands right now, Yoan Moncada is the best player on the White Sox. This could all change after Luis Robert makes his debut or if Lucas Giolito wins the Cy Young Award, but Moncada is the safest bet in this situation. I am a little worried about how his lack of time to prepare for the season will affect his performance out of the gate, but look for Moncada to adjust after the first week or two.

Jake Bartecki: Yoan Moncada

Having recently recovered from COVID-19, Moncada is back and likely to start in the opener later this week. After 25 homers, 79 RBI, and a .315 AVG in 2019, Moncada has made the turn into the player the Sox traded for. He was at his best in June-August last season, so expect a ton out of number 10.

Noah Phalen: Yasmani Grandal

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Team Cy Young

Joe Binder: Lucas Giolito

Part of me really wants to say Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel to break up the trend of Lucas Giolito answers you’ll find but I just can’t seem to do it. Gio is the team’s ace for a reason and I don’t see that title being taken away from him in 2020. His fastball, changeup, and improving curveball – which he specifically focussed on in last week’s scrimmage – are looking sharp as we near Opening Day and I believe will help him garner similar 2019-like success in this 60-game season.

Jordan Lazowski: Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito isn’t the pitcher on the staff with the highest ceiling, but he has some of the best pure stuff on the team with some sort of track record to match. The goal for Giolito will be to build upon his 2019 success by further establishing consistency as a top of the rotation arm. Look for him to take a step forward this season with the increased use of his curveball, which will add a new challenge for hitters who might be ready to study him as a three-pitch pitcher. If Giolito can recapture his 2019 success while building on his areas of weakness, there’s no reason that he can’t claim the “Team Cy Young” award for the second year in a row. But, I think my breakout candidate will give him a run for his money…

Nik Gaur: Lucas Giolito

By all accounts, Giolito has looked very sharp in scrimmages. He was without a doubt the best pitcher on the staff last year, and while the rotation has improved, he is still clearly the most polished starter on the team.

Tim Moran: Lucas Giolito

Although I believe Dallas Keuchel is being underrated by some Sox fans, Lucas Giolito is a talented young pitcher who should only improve. He has the skillset and confidence required to be a true ace.

Patrick Roelofs: Aaron Bummer

I know I just said Giolito could potentially be the best player on the Sox, but Aaron Bummer’s stuff is filthy. In a season where the Sox will likely use the back-end of their bullpen more than ever before, seeing Bummer on the mound will be a regular occurrence. Pair the number of innings he’ll get with the myriad of advanced statistics that place him in the top 1% of baseball, and you’re looking at the Cy Young of the White Sox, if not the entire American League.

Jake Bartecki: Dallas Keuchel

One of the blockbuster deals the Sox made in the offseason, Dallas Keuchel is ready to rock in 2020. He was in this same situation last season, being a free agent, and not signing until later in the season with the Braves. His pitches have frozen batters at the dish during Summer Camp. Here’s a pick to mix things up a bit. 

Noah Phalen: Lucas Giolito

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Breakout Candidate

Joe Binder: Dylan Cease

In case you needed additional reasons to get excited about this guy, Dylan Cease’s start during last week’s intrasquad action was a clear indication of what he can bring to the table. He’s already mentioned in interviews how he believes that his fastball’s cutting issues have been fixed and his offspeed looked incredibly nasty as he carved through the “away team” lineup with ease. As long as he can stay consistent, Cease has the necessary ingredients and newfound confidence to make a giant leap in 2020. Like many people have raved about, he has top of the rotation stuff. Now it’s time for him to just put it all together. Expect him to be a key part of this team’s success and perhaps even challenge Giolito for bragging rights as the team’s top starter this season.

Jordan Lazowski: Dylan Cease

In my opinion, Dylan Cease is currently the pitcher on the staff with the highest ceiling. He has the pure stuff of an ace with an inability – thus far – to command the zone. His most recent intrasquad pitching performance was the most promising outing I’ve seen from him in a White Sox uniform, and it has been established that Lucas Giolito and Yasmani Grandal have made efforts to help Cease to establish consistency. Seeing as Cease has said he is the most confident he has ever been as a player, I believe a year of development in 2019 will allow Cease to firmly establish himself as a top of the rotation arm for the future of the White Sox in 2020.

Nik Gaur: Eloy Jimenez

While Jimenez had a fine rookie year, he was somewhat inconsistent and slowed down by nagging injuries. This year, I expect him to put it all together and become a more consistent force near the heart of the order. A prolonged hot streak from Jimenez could propel the White Sox to a playoff berth.

Tim Moran: Dylan Cease

As I wrote at the conclusion of the 2019 campaign, Dylan Cease is primed for a good year. He only improved as the season went on, and he’s looked super sharp in training this far. His stuff is out of this world, and as long as he can control the ball as he’s done during intrasquad games, Cease will break out in 2020.

Patrick Roelofs: Nomar Mazara

Mazara’s disappointing performance in a Rangers’ uniform was the product of a few key factors. With a changed swing, protection in the lineup, and the privilege of not having to face Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander anymore, Mazara has the perfect opportunity to have a big year. Look for him to hit home runs more frequently, and strike out less frequently, than any other season in his young career.

Jake Bartecki: Luis Robert

Already one of the most exciting players in all of Chicago baseball, Luis Robert is going to have a rookie season to remember. While he may need a bit of time to adjust to big-league pitching, his fielding and speed will make up for it. I see Robert having an average around .280 and limited errors in the field. An American League Rookie of the Year candidate for sure. 

Noah Phalen: Reynaldo Lopez

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X-Factor

Joe Binder: Starting Rotation

Though the White Sox seem to have the necessary depth on paper, the starting rotation as a whole is my “X-Factor” for this season. There are still so many questions and much unpredictability surrounding guys like Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease, especially in a 60-game season where you can’t afford to throw games away. Can Lopez turn things around while Cease leaps to the next level? Likewise, can the veteran presence of Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Rodon provide consistent starts if the younger guys struggle? While I feel more confident than I am worried right now, a large part of this team’s overall success hinges on the performances of the pitching staff. One brutal stretch and postseason chances could evaporate.

Jordan Lazowski: Dallas Keuchel

There’s a lot of youth in this current pitching rotation – Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez all will get significant innings this season. Youth means A LOT of volatility, and if the White Sox want to approach that .500 record this season, Dallas Keuchel will have a large role in it as a pitcher who was brought in to battle the volatility with consistency. As a pitch-to-contact pitcher, his effectiveness will largely be determined by the quality of the defense behind him. However, if Keuchel can pitch deep into games effectively, the White Sox will be able to bring stability to a rotation that is working to establish just that. Without Keuchel, this season could turn south rather quickly.

Nik Gaur: Reynaldo Lopez

Simply put, I believe Reynaldo Lopez (and Dylan Cease, to an extent) will decide whether or not the White Sox make the playoffs. The team is going to score a ton of runs, given the newfound depth and power in the lineup. One can expect Giolito to be effective, Keuchel, Gonzalez, and Rodon to at least be adequate, and the bullpen to be passable. However, Lopez is a wild card. Despite taking a step back last year, he has insisted that his problems are solely mental and that his time with psychologists in the offseason has solved them.

It is easy to believe that Lopez, who flashes his immense talent from time to time, does not suffer from a lack of skill or tools. If he can consistently show why the White Sox valued him as the top asset in the return for Adam Eaton, the White Sox rotation suddenly becomes a strength. The same is true for Cease, but since Lopez has much more experience, the onus should be on him to improve immediately.

Tim Moran: Dallas Keuchel

As I talk about later, the key for the South Siders this year is their pitching staff. That said, Chicago needs a reliable number two starter, and that’s got to be Dallas Keuchel. They should have enough depth to weather the storm behind him, and Lucas Giolito looks to be solid in front of him, making Keuchel a key cog in the system.

Patrick Roelofs: The Bullpen

As I said earlier, we’ll be seeing the back-end of the bullpen more in 2020 than ever before. Why? In a 60-game sprint, Renteria will essentially have to treat every game like a playoff game. This will mean pulling starters earlier than normal and putting in guys like Bummer and Jimmy Cordero to get high-leverage outs. On top of this, starters may not feel ready to go six or seven innings in their first few starts of the season, which will give way to early entrances by the relievers. Because of this, the success of White Sox pitching will fall heavily on the bullpen in 2020.

Jake Bartecki: Tim Anderson

When Tim Anderson is amped, the Sox are amped. When is he amped? Almost all the time. The energy that Tim Anderson brings to the Sox is impeccable and crucial. His ability to pump up those around him, be a good teammate, and never give up will set the Sox apart from other rivals in the division. Oh, and he’s the reigning AL batting champ. 

Noah Phalen: Dylan Cease

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Bold Prediction

Joe Binder: Lucas Giolito AND Dylan Cease will receive Cy Young votes

Remember when I said that Cease could challenge Giolito as the team’s top starter this season? I’m going to continue along those same lines and go so far as to say that Cease will have a breakout season and receive Cy Young votes along with Giolito. I don’t think it will be a one-two finish like Houston’s Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole last season, but both will be on the list in some way or another. Book it!

Jordan Lazowski: Garrett Crochet pitches important innings for the White Sox down the stretch in 2020

This bold prediction started way back when I was on “Three Things” with our friends from Section 108 (@FromThe108). I stated the White Sox should be considering Garrett Crochet in the June draft as someone with an enormously high ceiling who could make an impact this season. Fast forward to July, and Crochet has been added to the Schaumburg Taxi Squad for the White Sox.

The White Sox have a glaring weakness: depth in left-handed pitchers. Beyond Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Rodon, and Aaron Bummer, the Sox don’t have any southpaws who can be counted on to make an impact. This weakness is especially apparent in the bullpen. If Crochet proves he is healthy and able to make an impact, and the White Sox find themselves still squarely in the playoff hunt come late-August, I don’t think it’s too crazy to say Garrett Crochet could find his way onto the roster in a bullpen role with the pure stuff that he has.

Nik Gaur: Luis Robert not only wins Rookie of the Year, but even receives some MVP votes

This might be a little too bold, but Luis Robert is a terrific candidate to be a star right away. His plus defense and elite speed guarantee that he will at least have some impact from his first game, but his raw power and aggressive approach could click early and lead to a superstar campaign.

Tim Moran: Dylan Cease pitches to sub-3.00 ERA

Not too much more to say here – I love Cease, and with his talent, the sky is the limit.

Patrick Roelofs: Nick Madrigal will hit .330 in his rookie season

Have you seen the way he’s been swinging the bat in Summer Camp? Madrigal makes contact at a rate that’s reminiscent of the dead-ball era (16 Ks in 532 PAs last year) and always seems to find holes in the infield. Look for the 5-foot-7, 23-year-old to slap line drives to right-center field all year, en route to an eye-opening .330 batting average.

Jake Bartecki: Mendick becomes sole second baseman

His gutsy play in Summer Camp has proven this to be not such a bold prediction, but I truly think Danny Mendick will be THE guy for the White Sox at second base. For a small frame, Mendick can crank the baseball. He also has been very smooth with all of his throws despite a misplay every here and there.

Noah Phalen: Jimmy Cordero emerges as one of the top late-inning relievers in baseball

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Playoffs?

Joe Binder: Yes, Wild Card

With my previously stated record of 34-26, I think it will be enough for this team to sneak into the Wild Card Game. Though I’d feel much more confident in this prediction if this were a season that featured expanded playoffs, I’m still pretty optimistic overall. I think some young guys will play up to their potential and serve in key roles down the stretch. At the very least, I feel comfortable saying this team will still be in contention come mid-September, even if it may not be for the division.

Jordan Lazowski: No

I don’t think it’s their time yet. There are still far too many question marks and far too much development to be done for a team with playoff aspirations. This 60-game sprint will go a long way in answering long-term questions, but the Twins and Indians are still very good baseball teams with more experience. The White Sox’ time is coming, but I don’t think this is the time to begin printing the “Division Champs” banners just yet.

Nik Gaur: Very close, but no

The White Sox would make the postseason with expanded playoffs, but given that I predicted a 32-28 record, I believe they will be the best AL team to miss the postseason. I hope I am wrong and that 32 wins are either good enough to make it, or they need to win more. The beauty of such a short season is that one hot streak can make an entire year, and the young and talented White Sox roster could quite possibly put a dominant stretch together that gets the job done.

Tim Moran: Yes, Wild Card

35-25 is going to be right on the edge of contention, and I think the baseball gods will finally shine favor upon this troubled franchise.

Patrick Roelofs: Yes

This is a tough call, but do I really want to be the guy that says the White Sox won’t make the playoffs, only to see them popping champagne bottles at the end of September? Given the fact the Sox play the Tigers and Royals often, as well as the Pirates for four games, they seem to have a leg up on the AL East and West for a wild card spot. In a couple short months, the fourth-longest playoff drought in MLB will finally come to an end.

Jake Bartecki: YES!

The White Sox will make the playoffs. There will be log jams at the top of the standings around that 35-38 win range, but the Sox will have enough left in the tank to make it to October. Their pitching staff has about three above-average starters, and their offense is the most powerful it’s been in years. 

Noah Phalen: Yes, second Wild Card

The White Sox are unquestionably one of the most interesting teams entering the shortened 2020 season. After promising developments from young players in 2019, the team added several veteran talents to supplement the young core. MLB.com rated the Sox as the seventh-best lineup in baseball. Yasmani Grandal’s impact will go beyond his prowess at the plate, and extend to the pitching staff, which will be the key to the team’s success. Lucas Giolito will pick up where he left off, and Dallas Keuchel will provide some veteran stability. If Dylan Cease or Reynaldo Lopez can become more consistent, the rotation has potential to be a real strength for this team. In a 60 game season, every game matters, and I think the White Sox are well equipped to stay in this thing until the very end.

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