The 2022 White Sox may have been doomed from the start

When the 2021 Chicago White Sox won the American League Central for the first time since 2008, expectations were immediately through the roof. A team that had finally shaken their dreaded “rebuilding” label, many expected the Tony La Russa-led ballclub to immediately compete for a World Series championship. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t meant to be. The White Sox were handily beaten by the Houston Astros 3-1 in a series that never really felt all that close. Regardless, many saw this as the beginning of this team’s contention window. Not only did the South Siders put the league on notice in 2021, but they’d lick their wounds and come back next season even stronger than before. After all, they were eliminated by a team that ended up competing for a championship! The White Sox can’t be that far away, right?

Right?

A Nice Dose of Reality

The 2022 Chicago White Sox came into the season with the highest expectations since 2006. Not only were they a near lock to win back-to-back AL Central titles and make the playoffs, but they were also +1200 to win the World Series. The national media had finally recognized the baseball team on the South Side. The regular season was simply a warmup for the heavyweight bouts waiting for the White Sox in playoffs. A rematch with the Astros? A heated series against the Yankees? An AL Central showdown if the Twins or Guardians sneak into the wild card? Analysts and fans alike couldn’t wait to see how everything would line up in October.

Well, it’s October. The White Sox finished the season 81-81, 11.0 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, missing the playoffs. Manager Tony La Russa recently announced his retirement, chalking up his return to baseball as a monumental failure. General Manager Rick Hahn has been left with more questions than answers and is now searching for a new manager. This team was primed for a World Series run, how did they fall off so fast? How did a likely sprint to the playoffs turn into a jog into the offseason?

Well, if numbers and trends regarding the past ten World Series winners are any indication, this team never had a chance to begin with.

Finding The Winning Formula

On paper, the White Sox appear to be as talented as any other team playing for a championship this postseason. With proven hitters such as Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, and AJ Pollock, runs should be at a surplus. The argument only strengthens when you take a look at their starting rotation. Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, and Johnny Cueto all have legitimately great stretches of baseball under their belt. Not to mention a bullpen highlighted by one of the best closers in baseball, Liam Hendriks. Unfortunately, baseball isn’t played on paper. Despite the amount of talent on the roster, it never came together how it should.

When studying past championship teams, certain criteria have to be met to make it over the hump. While no two teams are exactly the same in regard to their strengths and weaknesses, the teams that win it all find enough balance to cancel out their biggest flaws. In this study, we take a look at how the past ten World Series champions rank among the most popular hitting/pitching statistics.

For hitting, we examine home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), hits (H), doubles (2B), triples (3B), batting average (BA), and on-base percentage (OBP).

For pitching, we examine team earned run average (ERA), team shutouts (SHO), batting average allowed (BAA), strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), walks per nine innings (BB/9), and strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB).

Through this, we look to find the common trends among these championship teams and compare them to what the White Sox have produced in the past two seasons.

The Winning Approach At The Plate

When taking a look at World Series champions in the past ten years, you will find a melting pot of different team philosophies. Taking a look at the table below, you can see where each of these teams ranked in each statistical category during their respective championship season.

As you can see, there are some trends that immediately stick out.

• You have teams that live and die by the home run, like the 2020 Dodgers and 2021 Braves.
• You also have teams that make their living by hitting for contact and getting on base, like the 2013 Red Sox and the 2019 Nationals.
• Then finally, you have the expected powerhouse teams that can flat-out do everything, like the 2017 Houston Astros and the 2018 Red Sox.

Now that we’ve got the obvious ones out of the way, let’s take a closer look at some of the teams considered outliers by most traditional standards.

• Teams like the 2012 and 2014 Giants are remembered more for their pitching accolades than their performance at the plate. While they were the worst home run-hitting team in baseball in 2012, they found a perfect balance of hitting for contact, getting on base, and getting extra base hits. Specifically, they made their money on triples. In both their championship runs, the Giants were able to take advantage of more timely hitting by giving batters a runner on third at a very impressive clip.
• The 2015 Royals perfected this strategy, hitting an impressive number of extra-base hits while staying disciplined at the plate. Behind strong pitching performances, these teams didn’t need the long ball. What they needed was timely, well-placed hitting.

Power Outage

Keeping both the popular and obscure strategies in mind, let’s take a look at where both the 2021 and 2022 White Sox rank in these categories.

When taking a look at the 2021 White Sox, you can see a good formula coming together. There appears to be a direct correlation between teams that struggle with the long ball using alternative methods to a fair amount of success. What the 2021 team did well was get on base, move runners over, hit the gaps in the outfield for doubles, and drive in runners in scoring position. The OBP is especially impressive, but not surprising considering the seasons Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Jose Abreu had drawing walks. This strategy is sustainable when paired with strong pitching, similar to the Giants discussion above, but can fall apart quickly when the team cannot draw walks against particularly strong pitching performances. Luckily, Cy Young performances from Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon helped carry the load more often than not.

As far as 2022 goes, teams caught on quickly to what made the offense tick. Pitchers became more aggressive against a team that had proven to not hit for power, with an approach based on walks and singles. Fewer walks were given, making batters more aggressive at the plate, leading to diminished OBP and falling behind in counts. In this instance, both batting average and hits are incredibly misleading, as there were fewer opportunities with men on base to drive in runs, hence the low RBI ranking. As we’ll get into next, pitching couldn’t carry the load this time around.

Commanding The Mound

Now let’s take a look at the pitching performances on these championship squads. As you’ll probably notice, some of the weaker offenses from above were supplemented by some impressive staffs.

Most probably expected to see more across-the-board dominance, but there are quite a few interesting correlations here. Besides the 2016 Cubs, 2018 Red Sox, and 2020 Dodgers, who both sported some of the most dominant pitching staffs of the past ten seasons, the rest of these teams capitalized on the limited nature of their arms. Take, for example, the reigning champion Atlanta Braves. What they lack in dominating strikeout numbers, they make up for BAA. The Braves leaned on their strong defense and ability to force ground balls to keep runs off the board, supplementing their power offense in the process. A similar approach was used by the 2014 Giants, who sported a top-five K/BB with a pedestrian K/9, based solely on how well they limited walks.

In a nearly opposite strategy to the others on this list, the 2017 Astros struggled to keep runs off the board and had issues with command. Sitting at the second highest of the group with a 3.25 BB/9, they made up for this with a staggering 9.91 K/9, resulting in an impressive 3.05 K/BB. It’s times like this when you really have to appreciate the work of a great pitching coach, who can recognize the strengths/weaknesses of a team and get creative to cancel them out. It will almost always fall on the pitcher on the rubber to hit his marks, but impressive nonetheless.

Carrying The Load

When taking a closer look at the White Sox pitching ranks, you start to get a clear picture of who carried the load in 2021. While there was certainly a drop-off from last season to this, you can still see how far the pitching goes in the success of this team.

The common fan will tell you that the most exciting things about baseball are home runs and walk-offs. While that’s certainly hard to deny, it seems that the consistency of a strong pitching staff gets lost in the importance of a championship team. That felt like the case in 2021. Time and time again, both the starting rotation and bullpen would keep a sometimes stagnant offense in the game. We saw it with Carlos Rodon and Lance Lynn constantly pitching deep into games. We saw it in the occasional Dylan Cease masterpiece when he would truly showcase his potential as a top-line starter. We saw it with Liam Hendricks locking down close baseball games where the offense gave just enough to get us over the top. You could easily sneak the 2021 pitching rankings into the list of World Series winners and there’s a great chance people wouldn’t even notice.

In 2022, it wasn’t quite the same story. While Dylan Cease made his presence known as an absolute star in the making, quite a few drop-offs in production hurt the entire staff. With the inevitable downfall of Dallas Keuchel happening before our eyes, the team simply wasted too many innings on the likes of Vince Velasquez. Luckily, Rick Hahn had a grizzled vet named Johnny Cueto at his disposal, who happened to have a career resurgence on the South Side. Michael Kopech also showed promise as a potential ace, but his early-inning walks derailed the team on more than one occasion. The team also couldn’t make up for the dropoff in Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, who both experienced injury issues early in the season. All of this, combined with the bullpen being short Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer, resulted in serious dips in every statistical category across the board. Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman attempted to make up for these absences, to little to no consistent success.

Moving Forward

In closing, the 2022 Chicago White Sox weren’t only disappointing, but they were predictable. The offense was not nearly as good as fans and analysts convinced themselves it was. The pitching, while dominant at certain stretches of the season, was a weaker staff than anticipated. Many saw the writing on the wall in that respect when the front office allowed Carlos Rodon to walk in the offseason and declined his qualifying offer, but there is no use crying over spilled milk.

The offseason ahead is a significant one, as the margin of error continues to get smaller for Rick Hahn and Co. They can certainly get off on the right foot by hiring the correct manager to capitalize on all the strengths and weaknesses of the current roster, but we’ll have to wait and see.

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Featured Image: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports