Week 1 Record: 4-5 | Overall: 4-5, 4th in AL Central
Guess who’s back, back again? Jordan’s back, tell a friend – about This Week in White Sox Baseball, of course. If you’re a loyal reader of these weekly recaps, welcome back. If you’re new to the site, welcome! Every Monday morning throughout the week, I bring a recap of what we’ve seen over the last week of White Sox Baseball, give my thoughts, share some of your thoughts with our weekly fan questions, and much more throughout the season! The recap will often change, but what I always promise you is insightful analysis!
With that, let’s begin with the first week of baseball, in which the White Sox went 4-5 when they easily could’ve gone 8-1. It was a week of painful mistakes, lack of hitting with RISP, and some short starting pitcher outings mixed with some late bullpen collapses. The White Sox found a lot of different ways to lose – it’s a good thing we play 162 games though (which will be the theme of most of this recap.
Tale of the Tape
Game 1: White Sox 3 – Angels 4 | Box Score | Recap
Game 2: White Sox 12 – Angels 8 | Box Score | Recap
Game 3: White Sox 3 – Angels 5 | Box Score | Recap
Game 4: White Sox 4 – Angels 7 | Box Score | Recap
Game 5: White Sox 6 – Mariners 0 | Box Score | Recap
Game 6: White Sox 10 – Mariners 4 | Box Score | Recap
Game 7: White Sox 4 – Mariners 8 | Box Score | Recap
Game 8: White Sox 6 – Royals 0 | Box Score | Recap
Game 9: White Sox 3 – Royals 4 | Box Score | Recap
Jordan’s Weekly Wrap-Up Thoughts
I’m not sure what this week will look like in our minds once Game 162 wraps up several months from now, but I think this week really should forever be known as the week of Yermin Mercedes. In what was a pretty uneven week for the White Sox, they ended 4-5. As many fans have mentioned, they could’ve been as good as 8-1. They lost several late leads from a bullpen that was billed as the best in baseball. The offense hasn’t looked great consistently, the defense is putrid, and the starting pitchers are having a difficult time getting into the 6th inning. Burn it all down! Rebuild the rebuild!
Or, consider the sample size we are working with. This isn’t a 60 game sprint anymore.
All of the above things are true. White Sox starting pitchers are not going deep enough into games, resulting in an overtaxed bullpen that has blown a few late leads. In addition, the defense has already put up some pretty awful numbers (-4 DRS), and the offense has had to deal with early season struggles from Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu, two guys who should be leading the lineup.
However, it’s not all negative – nor as it as bad as it seems. Consider some of the White Sox’ MLB rankings below:
Offense
- 1st in MLB with a 13.6% BB%
- 8th in MLB with a 22.3% K%
- 6th in MLB with a .334 wOBA
- 6th in MLB with a 114 wRC+
Starting Pitching
- 4th in MLB with a 29.9% K%
- 4th in MLB with a 2.77 FIP
- 10th in MLB with a 3.56 SIERA
Relief Pitching
- 6th in MLB with a 29.6 K%
- 11th in MLB with a 4.03 FIP
- 6th in MLB with a 3.24 SIERA
I think most of my frustration so far comes from the fact that they could be so much better than they are record-wise, even given all of the struggles. I mean the numbers above show that the White Sox are currently a top 10 offense and pitching staff despite the struggles. It’s going to take some time, and getting Tim Anderson back into this lineup is going to help tremendously. Luis Robert looks like he is starting to adjust really well.
I’m still excited about all that this team can do, and I still feel it’s a 90+ win team.
The sky isn’t falling – they play 162 games for a reason.
Stats On 35th: This Week by the Numbers
This Week’s Numbers:
13.6, 17, -0.070, 90.5, 2.6
13.6
The White Sox currently lead baseball with a 13.6% walk rate. Yes, you read that correctly. The White Sox are still registering some good at-bats despite their struggles.
17
Unfortunately, the White Sox’ string of 17 consecutive wins against LH SP came to an end on Sunday afternoon, as the White Sox lost a game started by Mike Minor. The streak will fall one short of tying the all-time record of 18 consecutive wins.
-0.070
Much of why I like Baseball Savant so much revolves around its use of “Expected Statistics.” They tell us, based on Launch Angle/Exit Velocity what a player should be hitting, versus what they are actually hitting. It looks to quantify just how “unlucky” (use that term very loosely) a player has been.
Currently, Yoan Moncada’s wOBA is .294. That’s not good! Compare it to his xwOBA though, and you get .364. That’s pretty good – compare it to Moncada’s .379 wOBA in 2019, and you see it could mean very good things for him. As Moncada refines his plate approach throughout this season, his current -0.070 wOBA – xwOBA bodes well for his season. Moncada is going to be fine, folks. Give it some time
90.5
One of Dylan Cease’s biggest problems last year was his spin efficiency on his fastball – it wasn’t helping him miss bats. As a quick refresher: spin efficiency relates to how much a fastball “rises” and causes hitters to swing under it. A higher spin efficiency, with correspondingly high raw spin rates, is a very good thing. Here are Cease’s spin efficiencies on his fastball recently:
2020: 82.8%
2021: 90.5%
He’s trending in the right direction. Give it time.
2.6
As Carlos Rodon gets set to head to the mound for the second time this season today, it’s worth noting that Rodon’s average velocity on his fastball was up 2.6 mph last start as compared to 2020. We saw at the end of last season some positive developments from Rodon regarding his fastball velocity, and is appears he has carried it over into this season. This will be something to monitor as the season continues.
Fan Question of the Week
This is the section where, each week, we ask the fans to submit their thoughts on something that happened during the week, and then we go ahead and talk about it in a little bit of detail. This week’s question was basically the same as my wrap-up thoughts above: what are your impressions of the team 9 games in?
I wrote out most of my thoughts above – this team is going to be fine. However, I always like hearing from the fans, so here are a few responses to our original tweet. Thanks to everyone who responded – and keep them coming in future weeks!
1) @AloneTeenSoxFan: I think the most important part is that, as you mentioned, we are 5% of the way into this season. I think it’s too early to determine if this team looks like a World Series contender or not – especially since the only team that does is the Los Angeles Dodgers. If we are still having these conversations about a month in, then there are some serious issues to address. But, 5% – focus on that.
2) @livvy_mike: You bring up a good point about Crochet and Kopech. However, assuming they eventually become starters, that will force guys like Rodon out of a rotation spot. If Rodon continues to perform as he has so far, he will be an incredible bullpen piece as well.
Add to this the fact that Crochet doesn’t likely start at all this year, and I think your worries will be more pertinent in 2022 than in 2021. As for Moncada, his expected statistics look far better than his actual ones thus far – as have his at-bats as compared to 2020. Of all the offensive pieces to worry about, I’m not too worried about him.
3) @RhyeSeas7: A lot of great points here – I’ll address a few. Moncada looks better than you’d think (as I mentioned before). He’s still got some improvements to make, but I’m not as worried as most.
Lineup construction likely won’t change too much, but I would also like to seee Vaughn far much more than we have. Hoping he “earns” his spot soon enough.
Finally, as for Crochet, I think he’s giving up some velocity for some control. Additionally, I think as he starts to stretch it out as a starter, you’re going to see him sit at 95-97 rather than throwing max effort (100+) every time out. That doesn’t bode well for someone who wants to start 30+ games a season. If he were injured, he wouldn’t be throwing. I think the White Sox as a whole as emphasized less max effort outings from both Crochet and Kopech.
4) @MarcoinSanta: This is an interesting one because Garcia definitely gets a bad rap from me. I think you’re absolutely right – Garcia is at his best when playing as a role player rather than a starter. As for Madrigal, I need to be more patient there – however, he’s going to have to be near perfect to provide a lot of value to this team. Time will tell with him.
Overall, you’re absolutely right – patience is the key for a team like this. 9 games in is far too soon to make too many conclusions.
5) @TheJimiWilson: always love ending with some positivity!
Top Highlights of the Week
In this section, while there are often more than just 5 highlights throughout the week, I will go through and try to pick my top 5! Basically, if you missed the games this week, you’ll need to see these highlights to catch up.
1) Lance Lynn throws a complete game shutout in the White Sox’ Home Opener.
2) Yermin Mercedes. That’s it, that’s the highlight.
3) Lucas Giolito absolutely baffles Mike Trout in his Opening Day performance on his way to becoming the first player in White Sox history to strike out the side to open the season.
4) Jose Abreu crushes two grand slams in as many series to start the year – and hits his 200th career home run as a result.
5) Yoan Moncada and Yermin Mercedes start the Home Opener with a bang. Mercedes now has the third-longest home run ever hit at Guaranteed Rate Field.
The Week Ahead: An AL Central Test
A familiar AL Central foe comes to town this week, and the White Sox will have to deal with Cleveland’s best if they’re hoping to right the ship early in the season.
Monday: Carlos Rodon vs. Triston McKenzie, 7:10 PM CT
Tuesday: Lucas Giolito vs. Shane Bieber, 7:10 PM CT
Wednesday: Dallas Keuchel vs. Zack Plesac, 7:10 PM CT
Thursday: Lance Lynn vs. Aaron Civale, 1:10 PM CT
Friday-Sunday: Series @ Boston; Matchups TBA
Enjoy the week, White Sox fans, and we’ll see you here next week. Some fun matchups ahead!
Featured Photo: Brandon Anderson (@b_son4) / Twitter
