This Week in White Sox Baseball: April 19 – 25

Week 3 Record: 4-1 | Overall Record: 12-9, 2nd in AL Central

The week started out a lot rougher for the White Sox than it ended, as a bad Monday loss in Boston was followed by a four-game winning streak heading into the last week of April. There’s been a lot to talk about over just the span of a week, including Dylan Cease’s rotation spot, the White Sox’ ranking as a whole, and managerial decisions; let’s jump in and get to all the action!

Tale of the Tape

Game 17: White Sox 4, Red Sox 11 | Box Score | Recap
Game 18: White Sox 8, Indians 5 | Box Score | Recap
Game 19: White Sox 9, Rangers 7 | Box Score | Recap
Game 20: White Sox 2, Rangers 1 | Box Score | Recap
Game 21: White Sox 8, Rangers 4 | Box Score | Recap

Jordan’s Weekly Wrap-Up Thoughts

This was a really good week for the White Sox – outside of the clunker last Monday at 10 am CT, the offense showed up and helped this team where some of the pitching and defense may have lacked at times. The White Sox need to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and look to win two of three in every other series. If they do that, this team is going to be very successful.

One small thing I’d like to touch on before getting to the main part here: La Russa’s decision to bunt Saturday night with Yasmani Grandal. As you know, Robert singled to lead off the inning, followed by a Grandal bunt, Mercedes IBB, Hamilton strikeout, and Madrigal walk-off single. A lot of people have said “it worked, therefore it was the right call.”

I disagree, and briefly, here’s why. This is what’s called a Run Expectancy Matrix. It takes a look at historical data and approximates how many runs your team can expect to score in each scenario. This can be found on FanGraphs.

The two highlighted scenarios are where the Sox were pre- and post-Grandal sac bunt. Let’s take a look at it like this: if the Sox had ten scenarios in which they had a leadoff runner on base, they would be expected to score about 8 runs (10 * 0.831 = 8.31 runs). If they had ten scenarios where they had a runner on second with one out, they would be expected to score about 6 runs (10* 0.644 = 6.44 runs). This means that bunting a runner over to second decreases the amount of runs you are likely to score as a team. This is why I disagreed with the decision to bunt – even though it worked. By doing so, in today’s game, La Russa put his team in a less advantageous situation.

Now, I understand there are many more factors to this: Grandal has been struggling, doesn’t run well, and La Russa wanted to avoid a double play. I understand not all situations are made the same, but I actually liked the matchup of Grandal hitting from the right side – his historically stronger side. Additionally, I didn’t like the idea of taking the bat out of Grandal and Mercedes’ hands and giving it to Hamilton and Madrigal. Again, it worked, I get it. But there’s more to it than that.

There are situations where I’m definitely fine with bunting! However, bunting a runner over from first to second is the situation that is most likely to decrease your team’s chances of scoring a run. That’s the one situation I’m pretty strongly against. When I say “Process > Results,” I mean choose a process that, more often than not, is going to result in improving your team’s chances of winning. Think about it this way: would you rather I do something that has a 80% chance of succeeding, or a 20% chance of succeeding? Both have a chance to succeed – but one is successful far more often. This is what I mean by Process > Results. Choose what is going to make your team successful most often – even if it always doesn’t work.

I’ll probably write more about this later – let’s move on. Here are some good stats to know about the White Sox:

Hitters

• 1st in MLB in fWAR (5.2)
• 8th in MLB in BB% (9.7%)
• 4th in MLB in wOBA (.334)
• 2nd in MLB in wRC+ (118)
• 6th in MLB in SB (13)

Pitchers

• 6th in MLB in Starter fWAR (3.0)
• T-4th in K% (27.6%)
• 6th in MLB in FIP (3.47)
• 15th in MLB in BB% (8.6%)
• 6th in MLB in K/BB (3.19)

Things are looking really good for the South Siders on both sides of the ball – I’ve very encouraged by these early-season numbers. On offense, the White Sox now have two players in the top 20 in fWAR: Yermin Mercedes (0.9) and Luis Robert (0.9). On the pitching side, the White Sox also have two players in the top 20 in fWAR: Lance Lynn (0.9) and Michael Kopech (0.7). Kopech really isn’t surprising, but he continues to be the talk of the week along with a struggling Dylan Cease. In particular, fans are asking when it’s time to replace Dylan Cease with Michael Kopech in the rotation.

The quick answer: it’s too early. This is for several reasons. The first is that Michael Kopech, as Steve Stone mentioned on last night’s broadcast, is on an innings limit. The White Sox would prefer to have him available in the playoffs, and that just won’t be possible if he’s starting too many games in April/May and throwing too many innings then. Think about the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg in 2012 – he hit his innings limit too early, and the Nationals had to sit out their young flamethrower for the playoffs. This team needs Michael Kopech in the playoffs, so for now, he will continue to make spot starts.

The other reason it’s too early to move on from Dylan Cease: we simply have not seen enough of Cease to make a proper evaluation. I know it feels like Cease has been with the team forever, but he’s only made 30 MLB starts – that’s just about a full season’s worth.

Fans have many reasons why Cease hasn’t been successful: not throwing strikes (of course), poor mechanics, mentality on the mound; the list goes on. I really am not a fan of the “mental makeup” arguments with Dylan Cease, mostly because I’ve heard them before with another White Sox pitcher (Giolito). I don’t understand the idea behind not having the “mental makeup” to be a starter – I don’t know what is supposed to inspire that belief in me from my couch at home having never been in a major league dugout. Yet, it’s a pretty familiar talking point. For the other reasons, yeah, they’re pretty obvious. His mechanics are a work in progress and are a direct causation for why he struggles to throw strikes consistently

However, despite what it may seem, you have seen progress from Dylan Cease in at least one area: improving his “flat” fastball to get more swings and misses. I’ve talked about his fastball previously, but with more data, we’re able to see something pretty important: Cease has added more “rise” to his fastball, and as a result, he’s generating more swings and misses.

That’s a busy graphic, but focus on the fastball difference from 2020 to 2021. Cease now has above-average (rather than below average) movement on his fastball. As a result, the Whiff Rate on his fastball has increased from 17.2% in 2020 to 24% in 2021. This is the type of improvement we needed to see from Cease to ensure he was moving in the right direction.

I don’t know where the line should be drawn on Cease. However, I don’t think it’s at 30 starts, no matter how many seasons he’s been in the big leagues. An underappreciated aspect of all of this: he’s had four starts under the current regime with Ethan Katz – I’m willing to give the man more time to work with Cease than what’s been given thus far. He’s not only learning new things from Katz – at the same time, he’s breaking old habits from previous coaches. It’s going to take time – more than four starts worth of time.

For now, if Giolito, Lynn, Keuchel, and Rodon can consistently go 6-7 innings, the White Sox’ bullpen will be fine picking up occasionally for Cease if he’s only going five innings for a little bit of time – look around the league, very few teams have all five starts consistently throwing six or seven innings.

I’ve consistently stressed patience for this team. 21 games in, we are starting to see improvements from the offense and pitching staff. Let’s give Cease that same patience – knowing that we have a great option to pick him up should add some confidence to the current situation.

Stats On 35th: This Week by the Numbers

This Week’s Numbers:

12, 21, 0.26, 0.826, 0.976

12

With his two-run home run on Sunday afternoon, Jose Abreu became the 12th White Sox player to amass 2,000 total bases in their career. The impressive part for Abreu is how short of a time span he’s been able to accomplish it – especially coming into the league at an older age than most. It’s great to see Abreu starting to turn it on in 2021 as well – he will be a crucial piece of this offense moving forward.

21

Heading into action Monday, the White Sox lead the American League (2nd in MLB to LAD) with a +21 run differential on the season. Run differential is usually a pretty good indicator of a team’s success throughout the season, and for the White Sox to lead the AL 21 games into the season leaves positive signs for the future.

0.26

As I mentioned above, the White Sox are currently 6th in MLB in FIP at 3.47. They are also currently 10th in MLB in ERA (3.72). So, for as good as their pitching staff has been, the 0.26 difference between their ERA and FIP (7th in MLB) means there is still likely improvement to come from this team. This is a good sign for White Sox fans who have been discouraged by some of the early season results thus far – give it time.

0.826

Andrew Vaughn didn’t have a great first three games of his major league career. However, in the ten games since a brutal 0-for-9 stretch to start his career, Vaughn has slashed .310/.412/.414 (.826 OPS) with three doubles, five walks, and only eight strikeouts. While the power hasn’t shown up just quite yet, this looks far more like a hitter that belongs in the major leagues than his current .237/.356/.316 slash line might imply. Be careful of small sample sizes, but if Vaughn keeps this level of play up, he’s here to stay without any trips back to the minors.

0.976

In a similar vein, Nick Madrigal is starting to prove a lot of his doubters wrong. After a rough stretch to start the season that saw his average fall to a season-low .219, in the nine games since, Madrigal has slashed .394/.400/.576 (.976 OPS). These are pretty insane numbers, especially a SLG of .576 over any stretch for Madrigal. He has walked and struck out each just once over this time span, and if he continues to prioritize line drives and find some gaps for 2B and 3B, he’s going to continue to be a very valuable player for the White Sox.

Fan Question of the Week

The biggest topic this week among White Sox fans has been the fifth start spot in the rotation. Specifically, people are already done with Dylan Cease, and are wondering what it’s going to take to move Michael Kopech into the fifth spot in the rotation – considering, as Patrick Nolan pointed out, Cease isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire.

I’ve expressed my thoughts on Cease in longer form elsewhere – both earlier in this articles as well as on Twitter. It comes down to development time for me. But, since I’m curious, I asked the fans how they personally evaluate a player. Specifically, I was curious about how much data/time people feel they need before making a determination on a player:

It’s an interesting question, in my mind. Judge too soon, you end up missing guys like Giolito and Moncada. Wait too long to judge, and you miss your period to make improvements. Dylan Cease has 30 career starts though – I feel like we’re still closer to the “judge too soon” end of the spectrum. Let’s see what some of you thought, though. Thanks to everyone who sends in their responses – I read through all of them and always try to add some new names each week!

1) @AdamSchweitzer4: I think you bring up a very interesting – and important – point: “…as long as it’s the same pitching coach.” I think the switch between pitching coaches might very well play a factor in Cease’s development at current. Not saying it’s a loss, more so just saying it might take some time to “un-learn” things from an old regime as a new regime takes charge.

2) @GreenEyed_Soup: I appreciate that you see the subtle improvements – those might go a long way in the long run. Kopech’s another sort of animal – one of the most impressive pitchers I’ve seen. Cease is erratic, but at the same time, improved. Seeing improvement is enough for me until it’s deemed Kopech’s time in the rotation. Clock is ticking, though, I will absolutely admit that.

3) @Zach38145997: This is an interesting thought process – iterations of a plater being bad, versus the player themselves being bad. I like it. The question I have to follow-up is how big is Cease’s current sample size? Does it/should it reset with a new pitching coach – and new techniques/coaching? I think that needs to factor in.

4) @TarynnWanderer: This is why I have a hard time overanalyzing what Cease has done. For as stoic as he is on the mound, he likely has some jitters he’s still working through – he’s still only 25. I think there’s some improvement that will come with maturity – the question is when that will come.

5) @dtschnei5: I think this is a pretty fair evaluation – he’s got great stuff, and now it’s about harnessing it. As for your point about having a better option – I’m glad that’s how it is. That means this team is competitive and has a lot of homegrown options. That’s what every competitive team should strive for – and I think having that competitive push from guys like Kopech will only be beneficial.

Top Highlights of the Week

This was a week full of highlights; let’s take a look at the top 5!

1) Michael Kopech fans 10 Rangers in five innings on Sunday

2) Nick Madrigal walks it off in Saturday’s Pitchers’ Duel

3) Jose Abreu becomes the 12th White Sox player with 2,000 total bases

4) Danny Mendick and Yermin Mercedes make their debuts… On the mound

5) Yermin Mercedes has yet ANOTHER four-hit game

The Week Ahead: Central Division Foes Come to Town

The White Sox welcome Detroit to town for the first time this year during the week, and over the weekend, face off against Cleveland once again.

Monday: OFF DAY
Tuesday: Lucas Giolito vs. Jose Urena, 7:10 PM CT
Wednesday: Carlos Rodon vs.Casey Mize, 7:10 PM CT
Thursday: Dylan Cease vs. Matthew Boyd, 7:10 PM CT
Friday – Sunday: Series vs. Cleveland… Starters TBA, but Lance Lynn is likely to starting Friday off the 10-Day IL

Same time, same place next week, White Sox fans. Let’s go get some more wins and come back here for some more fun next week!

Featured Photo: Brandon Anderson (@b_son4)