Thoughts on the White Sox and their Opening Weekend

The White Sox dropped two of their first three games to Minnesota this weekend, and none of the three contests were particularly close in score. After months without baseball, White Sox fans picked right up where we all left off in 2019, with questions about lineup construction, Nicky Delmonico, the pitching staff, Nick Madrigal, Don Cooper, and Ricky Renteria’s job security becoming the center of attention very quickly – over just three days.

There was no doubt a lot to be learned over the first three days of the season, as many aspects of the White Sox strengths and weaknesses were put on display against the Twins. I’m going to go into more detail shortly, but if you don’t take anything else from the article, at least take this:

It’s Too Early to Worry About Pitching

After giving up 27 runs in three games, you’re probably scratching your head at me starting with this one. Here are some starting pitcher ERAs from around baseball from these first three games, selectively chosen if only to prove a point:

• Shohei Ohtani: inf
• James Paxton: 27.00
• Jose Berrios: 11.25
• Charlie Morton: 13.50
• Aaron Nola: 6.75
• Max Scherzer: 6.75

Now, make no mistake, a lot of pitchers had EXCELLENT starts to this season. But here’s the point: pitchers in general, and starting pitchers specifically, did not have enough time to get ready before this season started. Two and a half weeks of Summer Camp is not nearly the amount of time pitchers would usually get under normal circumstances – that’s usually up to around 6 weeks after a very similar four-month break. Basically, there’s going to be more rust than usual involved, and the rust happened to be more apparent for the White Sox because of who they were playing – the same goes for players like Scherzer or Ohtani. Under normal circumstances, I’d never want to face the Twins to start the season. I’d hate to start THIS season against the Twins – a team that hits mistakes as quickly and frequently as I hit the dessert bar at a party.

All I’m trying to say is that three games into the season is too soon to be calling for anyone’s job or worrying about the pitching staff. Giolito earned himself the benefit of the doubt after last season and Gonzalez was thrown into a less than ideal situation. However, if you want to worry about the depth of the pitching staff after Lopez’s injury, that’s a conversation I’m far more interested in. Let’s get at least two turns through the rotation before we start to evaluate as fans what this team has in the rotation, though.

If I had to guess: I’d bet Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert might begin to see significant starting pitching innings this season. But let’s cross that bridge when we get there. It’s just hard to make proclamations about the entire pitching staff when 40% of it hasn’t even pitched yet, that’s all I’m saying. Let’s not forget: Keuchel pitched well too. There were some positives on the pitching side.

The Batting Order isn’t the Problem

This might be a hot take to a lot of White Sox fans, but I decided to share it here anyway. White Sox fans have spent a lot of time debating the lineup construction itself. In general, in my opinion, lineup construction is overrated. There’s an optimal lineup, sure, but it’s usually not nearly what fans might think it is. However, I think the root of the problem remains who is in the lineup, rather than where they are batting.

The above is certainly an analytical approach, which is what I tend to. I also realize that there are exceptions to this rule. I know there’s a certain mentality it takes to be a leadoff hitter, for example, and as a manager, I’d react accordingly. But, I’m far less concerned about the fact that Robert hit behind Delmonico in yesterday’s original lineup than I am the fact that Delmonico was in the lineup in the first place.

Eventually, the White Sox’s best nine will all be in the lineup at the same time. At that point, I think it becomes pointless to argue about where everyone is batting in the lineup. Put your best nine of there, and you’re going to compete no matter what order they hit in. So, maybe now lineup construction is of a little bit more importance because of the sub-optimal starting nine. However, in a few weeks when Mazara and Madrigal are in the lineup, it’s going to be pointless for us as fans to argue with each other over who is hitting where.

Again, probably a hot take, but just my thoughts – for now, let’s focus on who’s in the lineup rather than where they are hitting. Basically: more ABs for Engel, less for Delmonico.

It’s Still Only Three Games

Yes, yes, I know: “But Jordan, there are only 60 games this season!” I get that, I really do – trust me, I saw more “one game is equivalent to 2.7 games” comments than I would’ve cared to over the weekend. However, let’s think of it this way. For the first time since 1954, there has been no team that started the season 3-0. The Marlins, Tigers, and Orioles are all first-place ball clubs. This is an odd season that has put a lot of teams in odd places to start the season, and every team is having some difficulty adjusting. It’s going to take time, even in a 60 game season, for everyone to feel comfortable with themselves this season.

With Madrigal’s promotion looming and Mazara’s COVID-19 injured list stint coming to an end soon, this team could look very different just a week from now. It doesn’t matter how short the season is – three games are three games. That’s still 72 hours from which to make decisions from, which is still not a lot of time, no matter the relative percentage of time that is in this season compared to most. Keep that in mind: things are going to change quickly this season. Being too drastic causes just as many mistakes as being too slow to react. But three games in, we definitely haven’t hit the “too slow to react” point yet, especially not when this team still isn’t operating at its perceived fullest strength.

It’s been a good weekend though – the offense is showing the power we all expected it to have and will be a force in this league for years to come. There’s still plenty of development to be done with a guy like Luis Robert, but even though it was only three games, there were plenty of positives with the negatives we’ve discussed. We need to keep that in mind over the next 57 games as we continue to evaluate all the questions still surrounding this team.

Logical Expectations for the 2020 White Sox

You might be saying, “Jordan, you’re being pretty low-key about all of this in a 60 games season.” In general, you’re right, but for different reasons than you might expect.

Here’s something I think was obvious before the season, but became glaringly obvious this weekend: the Minnesota Twins are the best team in the AL Central by a wide margin, and likely one of the top 5 teams in all of baseball. This was not going to be an easy series by any means for a team with as many questions as the White Sox still have, and the next seven games against them will not be a walk in the park either.

Because of this, we need to talk about expectations for the White Sox. In my opinion, the White Sox really do not have a shot at catching the Minnesota Twins for the division crown this year. The White Sox – and White Sox fans – should be placing the target this season squarely on the back of the Cleveland Indians.

Think about it: the Sox need to finish in at least second place in the AL Central to guarantee a playoff spot. For some reason, the target is on the Twins’ back, as if this White Sox team has the talent to catch the Twins. As constructed, with the questions left to answer for this ball club (of which there are still many), the White Sox do not have the talent to catch the Twins. However, they do have the talent to catch the Indians. A second-place White Sox team this season makes it into the playoffs. All you’re trying to do is secure yourself a spot at the dance. From there, anything can happen – the only thing that’s guaranteed is that you go home empty-handed if you can’t even get into the dance.

I blame the expanded playoffs and media narrative for putting some unrealistic expectations in people’s minds that the White Sox are on the same level as the Twins. They aren’t yet, but they can and will be. Objectively examining the Sox is difficult, but doing so saves a lot of frustrations when watching games and when determining what should be considered a “successful” season for the White Sox. 2020 was never about winning the division; it was about playing a better brand of baseball and hopefully finding a way to sneak into the playoffs. That was the narrative in March, but it appears the narrative shifted in the past few weeks as the season came closer. Some will call this “moving the goalposts,” but I think I’ve been fairly consistent in my belief that this team was ready to compete – but not ready to win the division. I think this Opening Weekend slugfest showed that the gap between the Twins and the White Sox is still larger than all of us might’ve remembered it to be.

Because of that, bring on the Indians. The Sox should put the target right on their backs and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Overall, I completely understand fans’ frustrations with a team that has expectations for the first time in quite a while. I don’t think it unreasonable to expect better baseball than what was on display in the two losses this weekend. However, I do think it’s unfair to expect a young team with a lot of question marks that existed back in March to suddenly have all the answers without having played games for three months. We knew coming into the season back in March that the starting pitching staff had question marks, as did a lineup that’s full of young talent and raw potential. I’m most excited to watch that talent develop and work towards answering some questions.

After this morning’s news, let’s just hope there’s still games to be played.

Thoughts? Comments? Let me know below and on Twitter – @jlazowski14!

Featured Photo: Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) / Twitter