Unpacking the nuance of the White Sox’ team building strategy

Yesterday, the White Sox made a surprise selection by drafting Hagen Smith, a left-handed starting pitcher, with their first-round draft pick (fifth overall). While Smith is widely considered to be worthy of a top-five selection, most media members, scouts, and draft analysts expected the White Sox to select a position player. This is due to the nature of the 2024 draft class as well as the current White Sox farm system, which is heavily skewed toward pitching.

When Smith was selected, notable position players such as JJ Wetherholt (2B/SS), Konnor Griffin (SS/CF), and Jac Caglianone (1B/P) were still available. Due in part to pre-draft hype and name recognition, the team’s decision is already being narrowed to Smith versus Caglianone by local media, which is reductive. While Caglianone’s prolific power could have helped the White Sox, he has plenty of profile concerns: lack of defensive versatility, high chase rates, lack of gap power, potential reduction in power when switching to wood bats, low probability of continuing to pitch effectively in MLB, etc.

The same is true of other options. Konnor Griffin, while tantalizing due to his power-speed combination and potential plus defense at premium positions, likely requires swing changes that the White Sox may not be best equipped to address. And JJ Wetherholt, while fairly well-rounded as a middle infield prospect who also hits for power, has an injury history that may have scared some top teams away.

The decision to draft Hagen Smith in a vacuum makes plenty of sense from a risk-reward standpoint. Where the debate gets interesting is from a team-building perspective. As mentioned, the White Sox have a very pitching-heavy farm system, and drafting a pitcher with a top pick — a pick that will be markedly better in value than the team’s 2025 first-round pick given the league’s anti-tanking rules — only furthers that divide. There are many different ways to approach this problem, and each is fairly nuanced.

“Just trade Crochet/Fedde/Robert for position players”

The above sentiment is the overwhelming response to criticism of the organization’s farm system being too pitching-heavy. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan even mentioned on air that the White Sox may focus on position player prospects in trade returns for Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde.

In theory, this makes sense. However, it also presents multiple issues. First, the philosophy reduces the potential amount of teams that could realistically strike a deal with the White Sox. The White Sox are not alone in having a pitching-heavy farm system. Several other teams may have more pitchers than position players toward the top of their system rankings, so their best offers for Crochet or Fedde would include these pitchers.

Moreover, teams (especially in recent years) are often more willing to trade pitching prospects than high-end position player prospects, especially those that are closer to MLB-ready (Passan mentioned the White Sox prefer hitters that are MLB-ready or close to it). By nature, a preference for position players in these trade returns may lead to worse offers from a value standpoint since some teams have a lower bar for a position player being “untouchable” than a pitcher.

This leads to the overarching point: it is not ideal to force yourself into a situation where you must trade for position players, considering you only have two position player prospects that currently project as MLB regulars. There is no such thing as too much pitching, but there is such a thing as not enough hitting. The focus in a trade should be getting the best return possible, but when 15 of your top 20 prospects are pitchers, you either have to compromise the overall quality of the return, reduce the pool of trade partners, or hope that a team offers you a dream package just because.

White Sox fans who are comfortable with the current plan must have a lot of faith in Chris Getz‘s ability to identify and acquire position player talent. Otherwise, the “just trade for hitters later” thought process makes even less sense. This will be especially notable once the conversation shifts from trading Crochet/Fedde to trading pitching prospects for hitting prospects since that seems to be where this is heading.

“Always take the best player available”

The decision to draft Hagen Smith may have (ironically, considering this article’s theme of unpacking nuance) been as simple as this: the White Sox believed he was the best player available. Of course, the MLB draft is a bit unique in that it is not just about the best player, but also the ability to sign that player (and in some cases, to do so at below slot value to better stockpile talent later in the draft).

However, one point that should be considered in the “best player available” (BPA) discussion is the concept of positional value. While the extent to which this should be incorporated can be argued, positional value has always, in all sports, been factored into BPA analysis. This is why NFL teams don’t draft punters and kickers in the first round, and MLB teams (for the most part) focus on middle infielders and center fielders over first basemen and designated hitters.

While the positional value of a starting pitcher is high, teams have varying philosophies as to the value of a starting pitcher and say, a starting shortstop. There may not be a “right answer” to this question, but BPA is a bit tricker of a concept than it may appear.

“The White Sox don’t pay for premier pitchers, so they have to draft and develop them”

It is true that the White Sox have not been known to sign (or attempt to sign) elite starting pitchers in free agency. The team pursued Masahiro Tanaka before he signed with the Yankees, and signed Dallas Keuchel in 2019, but the word “elite” is being stretched here, and it is unknown whether Tanaka seriously considered the White Sox. As a result of this hesitance, it indeed makes sense to draft and develop pitching instead.

What this argument fails to consider is that the White Sox also don’t pay for elite position player free agents. Failed pursuit of Manny Machado aside, the organization historically plays a couple of tiers below the top of the market (Andrew Benintendi, Yasmani Grandal, etc.). Since this argument can be applied in either direction, it should not be applied to the decision to draft Smith.

“It’s smart to take a pitcher if you know you’re going to trade Garrett Crochet“

Like the above point, this is another common view right now that seems a bit oversimplified. Yes, it is good to stock up on high-ceiling pitchers. Yes, a prospect like Noah Schultz should not be viewed as a replacement, but a supplement, so it is prudent to keep adding talent behind him.

But it is difficult to distinguish “take a pitcher because you’re trading Crochet” from “just trade Crochet for position players.” Why not draft a position player and trade Crochet for a pitcher? Why earmark the pitcher you draft as a Crochet replacement? And most importantly, why view the draft pick decision in such a binary fashion?

Again, while this should not be the way the organization views its pitching prospects, there are plenty of reinforcements that are MLB-ready or close to it. Beyond Schultz and Smith, the White Sox have the following pitching prospects at AA or higher: Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Jonathan Cannon, Nick Nastrini Ky Bush, Mason Adams, Jake Eder, Sean Burke, Tyler Schweitzer, and others. Statistically speaking, most of these pitchers won’t make it as long-term MLB starters, but the logic of taking a pitcher to replace Crochet still becomes weaker when viewed in the context of the White Sox farm system. As mentioned, 15 of the top 20 prospects are pitchers.

Overall, Hagen Smith is a very good pitching prospect and it will be several years before we know whether the White Sox made the right decision. But in the meantime, it is important to consider that even if you like the draft pick, it made the team-building process more difficult, which simultaneously requires more faith in Chris Getz’s abilities.

It’s certainly possible that the White Sox soon trade Crochet and Fedde for strong packages headlined by position players. But we will never know whether the trade packages were as valuable as they could have been had there not been a stipulation on the type of players acquired, and those restrictions would not exist had the White Sox selected a position player (or assembled a more balanced farm system in the first place).

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