Ryan Cordell, Jon Jay, Charlie Tilson, and Daniel Palka.
Did reading that list make you shudder? Imagine having to type it.
After the White Sox traded for Nomar Mazara on December 11th, the days of watching Cordell, Jay, Tilson, and Palka in right field came to a merciful end. While the move was upsetting to Sox fans that hoped for more proven right fielders, like Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, the 25-year-old Mazara represents a young, powerful left-handed bat brimming with potential.
Mazara’s numbers through his first four seasons with the Rangers don’t jump off the page. With a career batting average of .261, a career WAR of 1.3, and no seasons with more than 20 home runs, skepticism towards Mazara’s future is certainly warranted. However, Mazara has repeatedly shown that he is capable of being a consistent Major League player, even if it is not consistently All-Star caliber.
That being said, what should White Sox fans expect from Mazara in his first season on the South Side?
Big Time Power
Okay, so I know I just said he hasn’t had any seasons with more than 20 home runs, but do you remember that 505-foot bomb he hit off Reynaldo Lopez last season? Allow me to refresh your memory.
That home run is tied with Trevor Story for the longest of the Statcast era. It’s not his only spot in the top ten longest home runs of the Statcast era, either. In 2016, the freshly-turned 21-year-old hit this 491-foot tank off former Sox pitcher, Hector Santiago.
There’s no doubt that Mazara has the strength to hit balls out of the yard, but his hitting prowess doesn’t stop there. Mazara barreled the ball up 10.7% of the time last season, 4.4 percentage points higher than league average. These barrels led to a Hard Hit Percentage of 38.3% (3.8 percentage points higher than league average) and an eye-popping .485 xSLG (compared to the league average of .412). Not bad for a guy that seemed to be written off by fans as soon as the Sox acquired him.
At this point, you’re probably asking, “So why hasn’t he hit more than 20 home runs in a season?” Good question. There’s no one right answer, but I have a theory.
Over the course of his career, Mazara has hit the ball on the ground more often (49.5% of the time) and has hit the ball in the air less often (20.7% of the time) than his Major League counterparts. Along with this, Mazara’s average launch angle in his first four seasons was only 8.9 degrees, 2.3 degrees lower than league average. Unless Mazara can hit fly balls more often or gets the little league luck of T.J. Rivera every time he hits a groundball, he will have a lot of trouble hitting large quantities of home runs.
Though Mazara tends to hit groundballs, it’s evident that he has the potential to unlock major power. Expect a few massive home runs out of Mazara this season.
Lots of Strikeouts
These days, it seems like “the three true outcomes” (home run, strikeout, or walk) have become as expected as dollar hot dogs on Wednesdays, so it shouldn’t be a major surprise to see Mazara pair his power with a high rate of strikeouts.
Over the past two seasons, Mazara averaged approximately one strikeout per game played, tallying 224 K’s in 244 games. He even managed to record the ominous “golden sombrero” with his four-strikeout performance against Boston last season.
Mazara’s strikeout troubles can be linked to both his lack of plate discipline, as well as his inability to connect with breaking balls. Last season, he chased balls that were out of the strike zone 7.2% more often than the rest of the league. Mazara paired this high chase rate with a number of walks so minuscule (28 in 2019) that it made the 2018 White Sox offense look like a team full of Yasmani Grandal‘s.
Breaking balls seem to be Mazara’s kryptonite, as he whiffed on a whopping 41.5% of them last season. If he wants to cut down on his massive strikeout numbers, he’ll have to be far more selective at the plate. I don’t expect that to happen in this shortened, sprint-to-the- finish season, but hopefully, it was a point of emphasis for Mazara this offseason.
Mediocre Fielding
Though he’s not awful in the field, Mazara’s glove is nothing to write home about. But hey, Castellanos isn’t a good fielder either, so it seems like fielding wasn’t very high on the wish list of Sox fans this offseason.
Mazara has shown some signs of improvement in the field recently, as he recorded a career-best 0 Outs of Above Average last season. This number, which was good enough for 100th best in MLB. This probably seems very underwhelming, but when you consider he had -8 Outs Above Average in 2018 (192nd best in the league), 0 doesn’t seem like such a bad number after all.
Though his Range Factor/9 was well above league average in his rookie campaign, Mazara has fallen under the average RF/9 for right fielders in his three seasons since. He has never recorded anything better than -3 Defensive Runs Saved, either.
Overall, Mazara’s glove will not be a strong part of his game in 2020, but look for him to make a nice play or two, like this one on Tim Anderson, throughout the 60-game season.
Comfort Will Lead to More Production
Alright, I’ve been a little harsh on Mazara, so let’s think on the optimistic side.
When Mazara was called up by the Rangers in 2016, he was a 20-year-old kid. By the time he turned 22, Mazara had become an anchor his team’s offense, taking 570 of his 616 plate appearances in the third, fourth, or fifth spots of the batting order. In his third season in the majors, the 23-year-old Mazara took only two plate appearances outside of these middle three spots. Not much changed last season, as 441 of his 533 plate appearances came in the same spots. Mazara has never truly felt what it’s like to not have an offense rest of his shoulders.
For those of you that are weary to play the “mental game” card, I get it. Fans tend to place far too much focus on how players are thinking. However, I want you to consider the fact that Joey Gallo hit directly after Mazara in the lineup 36 times last season, more than any other Ranger. While Gallo got off to a solid start before he broke a bone in his wrist, he still only hit .253 with 114 strikeouts in 70 games. That doesn’t strike immediate fear in the minds of pitchers. With that in mind, pitchers likely would have been more willing to give Mazara pitches out of the zone, with the hope that Mazara would get himself out. If they ended he ended up drawing a rare walk, pitchers would have been alright with facing Gallo.
In short, Mazara won’t need to carry the offense anymore, and he’ll finally be surrounded by several solid hitters. Less pressure on Mazara, as well as the likelihood of better pitches for him to swing at, will likely lead to a productive year for the 25-year old, perhaps the most productive of his young career.
A Massive Improvement for the White Sox
Remember that list of Ryan Cordell, Jon Jay, Charlie Tilson, and Daniel Palka? Those were the four primary right fielders for the South Siders in 2019. In case you erased the memories of their play from your head, I’ll remind you that they combined for -3.6 bWAR last season. Ouch.
While Mazara will probably not hit .400 with 30 home runs in 2019, he’ll be a vast improvement over what the Sox had last year. Even if Mazara repeats the equivalent of his 0.7 bWAR performance from 2019, the Sox will be in a much better position to contend than they were over the past few seasons.
Mazara’s high strikeout totals and below-average glove will probably annoy fans throughout 2020, but look for him to make up for with jaw-dropping power and a more comfortable approach to the game.
Nomar Mazara will be an important piece to the puzzle of the 2020 White Sox.
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