As the 2020 season cruises towards its conclusion, the 26-15 White Sox own the third-best record and second-best run differential in Major League Baseball. MVP winners typically come from winning teams, and the emerging Sox have grabbed national attention for their talented roster and 16-4 stretch. Naturally, the White Sox have multiple American League MVP candidates in Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert. Which of these players has the best chance at winning the award?
First, allow me to qualify by saying that there is still a third of a (shortened) season to play, and other players could feasibly play their way into MVP consideration. For example, Eloy Jimenez has had a very solid campaign despite some tough luck on batted balls (his .358 wOBA is upstaged by his .395 xwOBA). Over a full, 162-game season, I would be confident in his luck evening out over time. With just 19 games to play, it is possible that his numbers remain somewhat stable. At the same time, it is easy to envision Jimenez going on a tear and ending the year with a slash line comparable to Jose Abreu’s. Nonetheless, let us assume that the currently MVP-caliber Abreu, Anderson, and Robert are the main candidates from the White Sox.
Jose Abreu
Jose Abreu is hitting .315/.361/.619 with 13 home runs, 40 runs batted in, and a 163 wRC+. Better yet, there is nothing that suggests his performance has been lucky or unsustainable. As a result, Abreu has been receiving the most MVP hype from White Sox fans, media members, and team-affiliated social media itself. Typically, players at non-premium positions like first base have an uphill battle in MVP voting, but Abreu is hitting so well that his position may not matter. It is also worth noting that his defense has looked remarkably better this year compared to his prior six seasons with the White Sox.
As the unofficial team captain and the middle-of-the-order slugger with impressive counting stats, Abreu might be the best bet from within the White Sox to win MVP. However, he is not the only option.
Tim Anderson
Tim Anderson is batting .351/.390/.595 with 7 home runs, 15 runs batted in, 5 stolen bases, and a 168 wRC+. He also has been playing much more consistent defense at shortstop. As implied by his .595 slugging percentage, the biggest surprise from Anderson has been his power output. Anderson slugged a very respectable .508 last year, but the significant increase has been an interesting development. I wrote about it in summer camp, when it first became clear that Anderson might have unlocked some more power, but a power-hitting Tim Anderson — when added to his already-prolific contact hitting and speed combination — is a legitimate MVP candidate and a force to be reckoned with in a stacked White Sox lineup.
Tim Anderson ranks third in the American League in wins above replacement (WAR) per Fangraphs, and the two players ranked above him are Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout, teammates on the fourth-place Los Angeles Angels. MVP winners rarely come from losing teams, so Anderson’s chances at winning the award are very real. My prediction: if Anderson wins the batting title again (not far-fetched, as he is currently first in batting average in the American League among qualified hitters) and continues to surprise with a significant increase in slugging percentage/isolated power, he will win the AL MVP award.
Luis Robert
Of the trio of White Sox players with legitimate MVP cases, Luis Robert has received the least MVP hype. I know that sounds weird, as Robert has gotten plenty of hype for other reasons — all of it warranted, of course. Yet, if I were able to vote, I would pick Luis Robert as the team’s MVP at this point in the season. The rookie center fielder is slashing .266/.333/.552 with 11 home runs, 27 runs batted in, 6 stolen bases, a 138 wRC+, and has been somewhat unlucky on balls in play much like Eloy Jimenez. By the way, did I mention Robert has been one of the best defensive players in baseball by practically every metric?
If the playoffs began today, the White Sox would be the #2 seed in the AL. One could make a fairly sound argument that Luis Robert has been the best all-around player (factoring in defense and baserunning) on the AL’s second-best team. Regardless, Abreu and Anderson probably have better chances at winning the league’s MVP award this year. Not only are they more established players, but they have the advantage over Robert in traditional stats. However, if Robert goes on a hot streak at the plate to end the year, he could certainly raise his name in the MVP conversation.
Non-Sox Contenders
One of the reasons I wrote this is because the AL does not have many clear-cut MVP candidates. The White Sox are objectively one of the league’s best teams, and they are also the only team that appears to have three or more players with a decent shot to win the award. Cleveland has Shane Bieber, but starting pitchers do not have a tremendous history with MVP awards. Minnesota has Nelson Cruz, but one would have to assume that the honor would go to Jose Abreu if voters decide that the award should go to a slugger and the White Sox finish ahead of the Twins in the standings.
Outside of the AL Central, the most impressive players generally play on losing teams, such as the aforementioned Rendon and Trout of the Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays are the only AL team with a better record than the White Sox, but their success has been a massive group effort, and Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe lag behind the Chicago trio of candidates in most statistical categories. Finally, the Oakland Athletics have a few interesting names on the MVP radar such as Matt Chapman and Mark Canha, but they too rank behind the White Sox players in most statistics — for example, they slot in at #17 and #19, respectively, in WAR in the AL per Fangraphs.
In summary, the White Sox actually have a considerable chance at a player bringing home the MVP trophy this year. Shane Bieber may be a little intimidating, but all it takes is one bad start to change his numbers from sensational to just very good. The final third of the season will provide a window for players to separate themselves, but chances are that one or more of Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert (likely in that order) will find himself as an MVP frontrunner three weeks from now.
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I’m usually not a pitcher-for-MVP guy, but I’d say right now, Bieber is the guy to beat. He’s the biggest reason they’re hanging with the White Sox despite that anemic offense. Every start so far has been a QS, which both speaks to his consistent excellence and lets their BP rest. You mention that TA is 3rd in the AL in fWAR (among position players), but his 1.9 is significantly behind Bieber’s 2.7. TA’s had a great year, as has Abreu, but I doubt they win the MVP unless Bieber has 2 bad starts or the Indians fall off a cliff.