Last Saturday, the White Sox were sporting a 10-11 record and a dysfunctional offense. Over the past seven days, the headlines have rightly highlighted the offense’s turnaround—27 home runs in 7 days, an MLB record. However, in the midst of the dinger onslaught, one piece of Chicago’s puzzle has gone largely unnoticed. The South Siders’ bullpen has been magnificent, with lights out pitching coming from multiple different arms.
Going into the season, the consensus among Sox fans was that the bullpen was good, not great. At the very least, those were my thoughts. In fairness, could we have predicted the greatness of guys like Matt Foster and Ross Detwiler? Probably not, but more on that later. Ignoring the opening Twins series, Sox relievers have defied expectations to the tune of a 3.10 ERA and 3.15 FIP, good for sixth and fourth in the league, respectively. Awesome, and even more awesome considering Aaron Bummer has been out for the last two-plus weeks.
Breaking Things Down
Elite
- Aaron Bummer: 7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.79 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 14.73 K/9
- Alex Colome: 10.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, 8.10 K/9, 6/6 SV
- Ross Detwiler: 12.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 0.32 WHIP, 7.30 K/9
- Matt Foster: 13.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.53 WHIP, 11.47 K/9
These four have been other-worldly. Matt Foster quite literally feels like he came from another world: The 25-year-old from Alabama was selected in the 20th round of the 2016 MLB Draft and came into 2020 as the Sox’s 28th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Foster flew under the radar it seems, as he quietly put up back-to-back sub-3.30 ERA, 10.30 K/9 campaigns in 2018/2019. Regression is certainly due for Foster, but his fastball command and nasty changeup (see below) should keep him in the league for years to come.
Aaron Bummer has exceeded his lofty expectations, and will be welcome backed with open arms when his muscle soreness subsides. The nasty southpaw should be a centerpiece for years to come, and can realistically pitch to a sub-1.50 ERA for the rest of the year. His game is THAT good.
Ross Detwiler’s resurgence is another curveball the Sox are enjoying. Ironic, considering Detwiler has thrown the curveball significantly less this season. Yet the uncle charlie is not the biggest victim of Detwiler’s changes—Ross has effectively replaced his cutter with a slider. In 2019 he threw the cutter on 15.3% of pitches, and the slider on just 1.9% of pitches. This year, he’s throwing the slider a whopping 27.1% of the time and has offered just one cutter. Credit to Detwiler for attempting (and succeeding at) such a radical shift in his approach at age 34. They’re well evident in his gaudy Statcast numbers.
Lastly, let’s talk about Colome. I know he’s been lucky this year, and many clamored for Aaron Bummer to assume the role of closer, but Colome has been markedly better than 2019. His 3.44 xFIP calls into question his spotless ERA, but is still a very solid number. In addition, let’s face it—the guy gets the job done. He weathered a few nervy outings to start the year and has really settled in. The closer argument may resume when Bummer returns, but Rick Renteria has two solid options regardless of who ultimately gets the call in the ninth.
Good
- Jace Fry: 9.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 11.57 K/9
- Codi Heuer: 9.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 0.889 WHIP, 8.29 K/9
- Evan Marshall: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 12.41 K/9
- Zack Burdi: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 10.80 K/9
- Jimmy Cordero: 10.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 7.84 K/9
Evan Marshall is the best of this group no doubt, even if his numbers aren’t what I would consider “elite”. His xFIP is fantastic though, so he’s been deserving of a much better ERA than his already stellar 2.92 mark. Relievers are notoriously volatile, but Marshall is the same consistent performer Sox fans grew to like last season.
Jace Fry is another victim of the bad luck bug, with a great xFIP and frustrating .417 BABIP against. Still, Fry is lacking polish with the curveball. He’s recorded zero whiffs on 31 curves this year, whereas in 2019 opposing batters whiffed 26.7% of the time on it. If Fry can get that pitch working, he’s in really good shape.
Zack Burdi has pitched well since coming up in limited appearances. He struggled mightily with command (among other things) in two minor league seasons post-Tommy John surgery, but has looked good since debuting a couple weeks ago. If Burdi can maintain his command (1.80 BB/9 currently), he’s got a bright future.
Jimmy Cordero is a guy who’s had some ups and downs this year. Cordero is a thoroughbred sinkerballer, throwing his go-to 63.0% of the time in 2020. His location on the pitch, though, has been questionable at best:
Sox fans have no reason to seriously doubt Cordero. But the bicep-flashing reliever has to get that sinker down and off the heart of the plate if he wants to earn high-stakes appearances moving forward.
Bad
Steve Cishek: Rick Hahn’s big-name bullpen acquisition this offseason has been his team’s worst option. Go figure. In fairness to Cishek, he’s settled down since a horrible first seven appearances that featured seven earned runs and two scoreless outings. Four of his five outings since then have been scoreless. In spite of that, Cishek has suffered from Cordero’s ailment: an ability to locate the sinker. I think the veteran submariner will start to do that and return to form before the season’s end.
Big Picture
The South Siders’ bullpen ended their 2019 season with a 4.33 ERA and 4.69 FIP/xFIP. Compare their form a year ago to today, and the differences are glaring. Instead of relying on a couple dependable pitchers, Chicago can now choose from six or seven arms and feel good about their chances.
That would all be fine and dandy anyways, but this development is especially key given the Sox’s current position. At 17-12, 0.5 games back of second place and 2.5 games clear in the first wild card spot, things look good for the boys in black and white. Come playoff time, you need a formidable bullpen, and the White Sox possess one. As previously mentioned, they also have considerable depth, so one or two injuries won’t derail their late-game hopes.
Thanks to the development of Dylan Cease and consistency of Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, Rick Renteria won’t have to tax his bullpen excessively either. If we’re to trust this week’s results, these pitchers should have acceptable run support too.
My point? Complete teams (and trash cans) win championships. Look at any recent world series champion and you’ll see quality throughout the roster. Some may point to last year’s Nationals and their bullpen woes, but that group tightened things up immensely as the season went on and also benefited from historic starting pitching.
I’m still skeptical that the White Sox have enough talent to make a deep playoff run. But come playoff time, no opponent can point to a unit of the Sox and say, “That’s their weakness. We’re going to beat them there.”
In fact, the bullpen is where the White Sox can point at almost any other team and say, “We have them beat there.”
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