With today marking the final day of Spring Training action, right now sounds like the right time to make some bold predictions. We put together this mailbag with some takes we believe might happen this season. Our thoughts ranged from a couple of MVP predictions to Oscar Colas’s impact and a potential Moncada bounce-back season.
Read below to find out more!
Which player is most likely to improve on their 2022 season?
Tommy Gross: I think Tim Anderson is going to improve this season. Looking at the season as a whole, Anderson didn’t have a bad season. He slashed .301/.339/.395 with a 110 wRC+ and was an All-Star, but digging a bit deeper, you can see why it wasn’t that great. From June to August, he batted .237/.266/.260 with just one home run. There are a handful of reasons why this could have happened. He only played 79 games due to a handful of IL stints and was dealing with some personal issues off the field. When he played, he was also a bit unlucky. He had a .323 wOBA, but a .340 xwOBA, which is a -.017 difference. To explain the down power numbers, he had a .395 SLG, but a .438 xSLG. This is a -.043 difference, which was 25th in the league in SLG – xSLG difference. With all this, I think he will bounce back to be the star shortstop he normally is.
Ike Gordon: My toxic Sox fan trait might be being a full-time Moncada believer, but I believe he has a bounce-back year at the plate in 2023. Although he significantly posted his worst OPS+ of his career last season, there are still signs that lead to him having a better offensive season in ’23. Despite his poor year, he’s still improving on his strikeout rate – he posted the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career last year at 26.3%. He also posted an extremely low BABIP of .265, where his previous low was .315. The baseball gods will hopefully allow more of Moncada’s contact to find holes this year, and banning the shift should help him land a higher BABIP this year. I think if he can get his walk rate back to 13% like it was in ’21, we will see a much improved Moncada this season.
Noah Phalen: With all the players that struggled last year, there is no shortage of options for bounce-back candidates in 2023. For the sake of this exercise, I’m going with Yasmani Grandal. Grandal’s power disappeared in 2022 after a very nice season in 2021, and in a post-season interview, we learned that Grandal wasn’t healthy at all in 2022. He’s been spending the offseason with members of the Chicago Blackhawks strength and conditioning staff and says he feels better than he has in a while. Look for his power to return and a bounceback season from the veteran backstop.
Thatcher Zalewski: Yasmani Grandal. Grandal seemed to play most of the 2022 season injured and overall not comfortable. He is obviously looking to bounce back and get back to 2021 form after a very disappointing 2022. With only a .570 OPS and five home runs, things can not get much worse for the former all-star.
Which player is most likely to regress from their 2022 season?
Tommy Gross: I hate to say this, because I like Reynaldo Lopez, but I think he will regress. Lopez had a great season with the White Sox and he found his spot in the bullpen after years of struggling as a starter. He had a 2.76 ERA and 1.93 FIP over 65.1 IP. The reason I think he will regress is because of his 3.28 xFIP. The reason he has a high xFIP and low FIP is that his HR/FB (Home Run/Fly Ball) is extremely low. In 2022, it was 1.5%, which means only 1.5% of his flyballs that were in the outfield left the park. This is much lower than the league average of 8.6%. So, this means ReLo will probably let out more home runs this season, which will result in a higher ERA.
I think Lopez is still going to be a great player in the bullpen for the White Sox this season, but I don’t expect his ERA and FIP to be as low as they were last year.
Ike Gordon: I believe Dylan Cease will regress this season. Not a major regression, but he was just so good last year, I’m not 100% confident he can post the same numbers again. One big concern for me is that he had the 5th largest gap between his FIP and xFIP at -1.31, which I believe would be hard to replicate. He also had a BABIP of .261 against him, so we’d have to trust the Sox defense to be as consistent as they were for him last year to post similar numbers. Also, he still hasn’t ironed out his control, leading the league in walks last year. If he had edged out Verlander in the Cy Young voting, Cease would’ve joined only Bob Turley as the only Cy Young winner to lead the league in walks.
I still think Cease is the Sox ace in ’23, I just don’t think we see the same numbers as we did last season.
Noah Phalen: Davis Martin surprised everyone by becoming a serviceable starting pitcher for the 2022 White Sox. The former 14th-round pick held his own in his first taste of big-league action. With uncertainty surrounding the situation of Mike Clevinger, Martin figures to be the favorite to replace him in the rotation if necessary, and we could see innings increase. I’m hesitant about whether last year’s numbers are sustainable for Martin. His stuff isn’t overpowering, and he did falter a bit at the end of the season. I’m going to predict that he regresses toward an ERA over 5.00, though I’d love to be wrong.
Thatcher Zalewski: Kendall Graveman. Graveman as of now projects to be the closer for the 2023 season. In 2022, Graveman pitched a total of 40.2 innings with an ERA of 2.66. However, with an xFIP of 4.64 in high-leverage appearances, there is bound to be some regression in 2023 for Graveman.
Who Is the White Sox’ 2023 X-Factor?
Tommy Gross: The X-Factor this year is Oscar Colas. When Carlos Correa left the Astros in free agency, rookie SS Jeremy Pena was asked to step up to the plate and replace their all-star shortstop. Pena had a solid rookie year during the regular season. He was 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting, won a Gold Glove, hit 22 home runs, and slashed .253/.289/.426 with a 102 wRC+. He had a solid regular season, but an outstanding playoff run that resulted in him getting the World Series MVP. Now, I’m not saying Oscar Colas is going to win World Series MVP. I am saying that when you have a good team and a rookie steps up and plays well, your team is going to win a lot of games. Oscar Colas is a stud. He batted .314/.371/.524 in the minors last year. The MLB is a different game, though, and Colas is going to need to adjust. If Colas steps up and plays well this season, we are going to have a good team. If he doesn’t play well this season, it’s going to be hard to win a lot of games.
Ike Gordon: I believe the X-Factor for this year’s Sox is their only good signing of the off-season: Andrew Benintendi. If he can provide another offensive year like last year, with an OPS+ of 120, and paired with the power he had in ’17-’19 with HRs in the high teens, I like the chances of the Sox returning to October baseball. On the other hand, if he’s this year’s AJ Pollock and Benintendi only posts five home runs like last season and we see declines in his OPS, we could be set for another frustrating offensive season for the Sox.
Noah Phalen: Despite all the hype and all the talent, Luis Robert has yet to play more than 100 games in a season. Robert being a healthy contributor in the daily lineup is an absolute necessity for the White Sox, and he still has the highest upside of any offensive player on the ballclub. The letters M, V, and P were thrown around a lot last year because, at his best, he’s a five-tool player that has the potential to be in the conversation. Is this finally the year that Robert stays on the field and plays as well as we know he can?
Thatcher Zalewski: Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn will be taking over the first base duties after the departure of Jose Abreu. He was the team leader in home runs in 2022, but he will have to do more than hit just 17 home runs if the team wants to be successful. Abreu did hit only 15 homers, however, his consistent production year in and year out will be missed in the lineup. Vaughn will have to step up and prove why he was drafted third overall in 2019.
What is your one bold prediction for the season?
Tommy Gross: I think the White Sox are going to make it to the ALCS, because I believe Pedro Grifol is really going to turn this team around. A new manager with an analytically driven mind is going to make this team much better – no more intentional walks on two-strike counts. Look at how much the Mets changed under Buck Showalter – they won 34 more games than the previous year under new management. Now, La Russa wasn’t the only problem, and just having Grifol doesn’t make the Sox World Series contenders. A lot of guys like Moncada, Giolito, and Grandal must step up and play how we have seen them play before if they want to win games. I think they will – and I think this team will win a playoff series this year.
Ike Gordon: The 2023 Sox are the 2022 Phillies. We will see them start slow, rumble, and tumble through the summer trying to find their way, and then they will click and get hot in September and make a deep run into the postseason after barely sneaking in.
Noah Phalen: Oscar Colas exceeds 25 home runs as a rookie.
White Sox #2 prospect Oscar Colas is slated to become the opening-day right fielder after tearing up multiple levels of the minor leagues in 2022. Though some questions remain about his swing-and-miss rate and limited experience in AAA, the one thing that nobody doubts is his power. Colas should feast on fastballs, and if he learns better plate discipline, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with, but the power should be there nonetheless. Some have even speculated that he has more raw power than Eloy Jimenez. I’ll take the over on 2023 homers.
Thatcher Zalewski: Eloy Jimenez wins the American League MVP: Award predictions always seem to be a bold way to go. Jimenez seems to be the full-time DH going forward and that should only help him in terms of health. People seem to forget that a healthy rookie, Eloy Jimenez, hit 30 home runs in 2019. Now being in the majors for a few seasons, Jimenez projects as a guy who can hit 40+ homers in a season. Jimenez will lead the Sox to another AL Central title.
Are you ready for the 2023 season? Follow us @SoxOn35th for more throughout the year!
Featured Image: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
